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My guest this week is Mark Dow. Mark started his career as an economist with the US Treasury and the IMF before he joined Wall Street. Today, he is the founder of behavourialmacro.com and runs a fund that combines his skillsets as a trader and an economist. In this discussion, we talk about why economists are usually bad investors, how Mark approaches markets, and we cover some provocative ideas - including how Quantitive Easing and Tightening have little effect and why Mark's not worried about US debt. Please enjoy this great conversation with Mark Dow
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.
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Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes
(00:01:06) Welcome to Making Markets
(00:01:53) Starting the Conversation: Economists as Investors
(00:03:31) Transition from Economist to Trader: A Personal Journey
(00:05:32) Understanding Market Narratives and Trading Patterns
(00:08:09) The Role of the Federal Reserve in Market Narratives
(00:09:26) The Impact of Monetary Policy on Market Dynamics
(00:09:40) The Behavioral, Secular, and Cyclical Factors Influencing Monetary Policy
(00:11:52) The Limitations of the Federal Reserve's Control Over Money Creation
(00:14:40) The Behavioral Conditioning of Interest Rates
(00:16:26) Understanding the Role of Banks in Money Creation
(00:17:16) The Misconceptions about Monetary Policy
(00:17:50) The Mechanics of Quantitative Easing
(00:18:50) The Impact of Quantitative Easing on the Economy
(00:19:55) The Role of Risk Appetite in Lending
(00:21:25) The Effect of Economic Expectations on Yields
(00:22:19) The Role of the Fed in the Financial System
(00:26:53) The Impact of Competitive Pressures on Risk Taking
(00:27:13) Understanding the Financial Instability Hypothesis
(00:31:01) The Role of Demand in Asset Valuation
(00:34:05) Understanding the Market Risk Cycle
(00:34:13) The New Cycle and Its Differences
(00:35:11) Economic Headwinds and Future Predictions
(00:35:41) The Role of Banks and Areas of Concern
(00:36:46) The Impact of Debt and the Financial System
(00:37:15) The Role of Government Debt and Its Implications
(00:37:36) The Stability of Treasuries and the Global Financial System
(00:38:07) The Future of the Dollar and Government Debt
(00:39:14) The Impact of Growth and Productivity on the Economy
(00:40:03) The Risk Cycle and the Role of Institutions
(00:42:06) The Impact of Fiscal Deficit and Modern Monetary Theory
(00:48:55) Understanding Income Inequality and Asset Price Inflation
(00:50:28) The Role of Finance and Technology in Income Inequality
(00:53:34) The Future of the Housing Market
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My guest today is Nir Kaissar. Nir is the founder and portfolio manager at Unison Advisors and one of my favorite economic commentators/columnists at Bloomberg. Today, he joins us for a wide-ranging discussion on the US economy. We start with the disconnect between the strong economic numbers and the sentiment amongst the population. We then cover indicators of recessions, the potential for a systemic crisis in Private Equity, the magnificent seven, and more. Please enjoy this excellent conversation with Nir Kaissar.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE.
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Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes
(00:00:00) - Welcome to Making Markets
(00:02:07) - Exploring Economic Disparities Amidst a Booming Economy
(00:02:53) - The Living Wage Crisis in the U.S.
(00:04:30) - Unpacking the Wage Stagnation Puzzle
(00:07:12) - The Transparency and Productivity Dilemma
(00:09:18) - Innovative Solutions for Economic Inequality
(00:12:41) - Government's Role in Redistributing Wealth
(00:18:31) - Addressing the Retirement Savings Gap
(00:19:26) - Debunking Recession Predictions and Economic Indicators
(00:29:10) - The Potential Risks in Private Equity and Real Estate
(00:32:55) - The Growing Influence of Private Equity
(00:34:55) - The Unprecedented Scale of Private Capital
(00:36:28) - The Need for Transparency in Private Equity
(00:38:06) - Exploring Systemic Risks and Distribution Concerns
(00:40:37) - The Changing Landscape of Commercial Real Estate
(00:43:03) - Rethinking Bailouts and Sovereign Wealth Funds
(00:46:29) - The Debate on Government Intervention and Economic Stability
(00:56:08) - Public Securities and the Magnificent Seven
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