速覽鮑威爾重磅鷹派記者會問答要點

原文整理：杜玉，華爾街見聞

鮑威爾意在強調，首先，聯準會官員作出任何降息決策都會感覺當前的經濟形勢和數據而定，而目前通膨和就業的兩大使命之間風險達到均衡，所以是時候開啟降息以提振勞動市場了。

第二，聯準會將逐次會議做出決策，不會受到市場對降息預期定價的影響，也不會考慮任何政治因素和議題，而是用「對當時適當的速度或快或慢地採取行動」。

第三，鮑威爾不認為大幅降息說明美國經濟衰退臨近，也不說明就業市場瀕臨崩潰的邊緣，降息更多是一種預防性質的行動，目的是維持住經濟和勞動市場「穩健」的現狀。

第四，他承認非農就業可能下修，但依舊是個值得參考的重要數據點，其他聯準會關注的勞動力數據還包括：失業率、就業率、薪資成長、職缺與失業人數的比值、離職率等多項指標：

重點是，「問題不在於具體數字的水平幾何」，而是在過去幾個月情況發生了變化，美國通膨的上行風險確實在下降，就業的下行風險增加，所以現在聯準會出手調整政策立場支持就業。

以下為華爾街見聞整理的鮑威爾9 月FOMC 大幅降息後記者會問答環節全記錄：

問題1：

Strong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50. Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market, and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead? And based on what should we make that call? br>

第三季美國GDP 預計強勁成長3%，那麼是什麼變化讓聯準會決定降息50 個基點？這是否可能顯示聯準會更擔心勞動市場，未來也會繼續每次降息 50 個基點？我們應該根據什麼做出這個判斷？

回答1：

Let me jump in. So since the last meeting , we have had a lot of data come in. We've had the two employment reports July and August. We've also had two inflation reports, including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCW report, which the QCW reports, whichs that that payroll report numbers that we're getting may be artificially 高about what to do, and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that's how we made our decision. So that's one question.

自上次會議以來，我們收到了許多數據，有7 月和8 月的兩份非農就業報告，還有兩份通膨報告，其中一份是在聯準會官員靜默期內發布的。還有 QCW 報告顯示我們非農新增就業數可能被人為抬高，將會被下調。我們也看到了像聯準會褐皮書這樣的軼事數據，所以我們收集了所有這些數據，然後進入公開發言的靜默期，我們思考該怎麼做，並明確了這對經濟、對我們服務的美國人民來說是正確的，這就是我們做出決定的方式。

So a couple things, a good place to start is the SEP. But let me start with what I said, which was that we're going to be making decisions, meeting by meeting, based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, the balance of risks. If you look at the SEP, you'll see that it's a process of recalibrating our policy stance. , when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that's more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be. And that process will take place over time. There's nothing in the SEP that srush time. get this done. This this process evolves over time.

（對於未來利率路徑的判斷），一個好的起點是看經濟預測摘要 SEP。首先，我們將根據收到的數據、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡，在逐次會議上做出決定。看看 SEP 你會發現，這是一個重新校準我們政策立場的過程，遠離一年前通膨高 + 失業率低的立場，轉向一個更適合當前情況和我們預期的立場。這個過程將隨著時間的推移而發生。 SEP 中沒有任何內容表明委員會急於完成（降息）這項工作，這個過程是隨著時間的推移而發展的。

Of course, that's a projection. That's a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker, if that's appropriate, we can go slower if that's appropriate. We can pause if that's appropriate. But that's what we're contemplating. But, Iassment the jem s woore tempas we're conlat遠. of where, what the committee is thinking today, but the individual members, rather, of the committee, are thinking today, assuming that their particular forecasts take, you know, are realized.

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當然，這只是一個預測。這是一個基線預測。正如我在演講中提到的，我們實際做的事情將取決於經濟的發展方式。如果合適，我們可以加快（降息）速度，如果合適，我們可以放慢速度。如果合適，我們可以暫停。但這就是我們正在考慮的。再次，我想指出，SEP 只是對委員會今天的想法的評估，而且是委員會的各位成員今天的想法，假設他們特定的預測得以實現。

問題2:

The projections show that the Fed officials expect the Fed funds rate to still be above their estimate of long run neutral by the end of next year. So does that suggest you see rates as restrictive for that entire period? Does that to thren the weake as restrictive for that entire period? Does that to thren the weakening of the joid market' , or does it suggest that maybe people see the short run neutral as a little bit higher?

預測顯示，美聯儲官員預計到明年年底聯邦基金利率仍將高於他們對長期中性利率的估計。那麼這是否意味著您認為利率在整個時期都是有限制性的？這是否威脅到您所說希望避免的就業市場疲軟，是否也意味著人們可能認為短期中性利率會略高一些？

回答2：

I would really characterize it as this. I think people write down their estimate. Individuals do. I think every single person on the committee, if you ask them, what's your level of certainty around that, and they would w. think we don't know there are model based approaches and empirically based approaches that estimate what the neutral rate will be at any given time. But realistically, we know it by its weit thattically, we know it by its lea. , where we expect, in the base case, to be continuing to remove restriction, and we'll be looking at the way the economy reacts to that, and that will be guiding us in our thinking about the question that atwe're asking every meeting, which is, is our policy stance the appropriate one?

我真的會這樣描述它。這是委員會每個官員個人的預估值，如果你問他們對此的確定程度如何，他們會說，這個範圍可能很大。所以我認為我們不知道是否有基於模型的方法和基於經驗的方法可以估計任何給定時間的中性利率。但實際上，我們透過它的工作原理來了解它。因此，在基本場景下，我們預計會繼續放鬆貨幣政策，我們將關注經濟對此的反應，這將引導我們思考在每次會議上提出的問題，即我們的政策立場是否合適？

We know, if you go back, we know that the policy stance we adopted in July of 2023 came at a time when unemployment was three and a half percent and inflation was 4.2%. Today, unemployment is up to 4.2%, inflation is down to a few tenths above 2%, so we know that it is time to recalibrate our policy to Something that is more approate. moving to a more sustainable level. So the balance of risks are now even, and this is the beginning of that process I mentioned, the direction of which is toward a sense of neutral, and we'll move as fast or as s fast as slow as fast or as as fast as slow think is appropriate in real time, what you have is our individual accumulation of individual estimates of what that will be in the base case.

我們知道，如果回顧一下，我們會發現在2023 年7 月採取的政策立場是在失業率為3.5% 和通膨率為4.2% 時採取的。如今，失業率已升至 4.2%，通膨率降至更接近 2%，因此我們知道，鑑於通膨和就業向更可持續水平邁進的進展，現在是時候重新調整我們的政策，使其更合適。因此，風險平衡現在已均衡，這是我提到的那個過程的開始，其方向是朝著中立的方向發展，我們將根據我們認為對當時合適的速度或快或慢地採取行動，點陣圖是聯邦儲備官員對基本場景的個人估計值。

問題3：

How close was this in terms of the decision, you do have the first dissent by a governor since 2005 I think was the weight clearly in favor of a 50, or was this a very close decision?

這是自2005 年以來第一次有聯邦儲備銀行理事提出異議，降息50 個基點的共識意見有多少？

回答3：

I think we had a good discussion. You know, if you go back, I talked about this at Jackson Hole, but I didn't address the question of the size of the cut. And I think we left it open going into blackout. And so there was And so there was so of discussion back and forth. Good diversity of division. Excellent discussion today. I think there was also broad support for the decision that the committee voted on. So I would add, though, look at the SEP all 19 of the part I would cuts this year, all 19. That's a big change from June, right? 17 of the 19 wrote down three or more cuts, and 10 of the 19 wrote down four more cuts. So, you know, there is a dissent, and there' a range of views, but there's actually a lot of common ground as well.

我認為我們進行了很好的討論。我在傑克遜霍爾談到了這個問題，但我沒有回答降息幅度的問題。我認為我們在靜默期之前沒有解決這個問題。因此，我們進行了大量的討論。觀點有多樣性很好。今天的討論非常精彩。我認為委員會投票通過的決定也得到了廣泛的支持。我想補充一點，看看SEP，所有19 名參與者支持今年多次降息，這與6 月份相比有很大變化，19 人中有17 人支持今年降息3 次或更多，有10 人支持4 次以上的降息。所以，存在著不同意見，也有各種觀點，但其實也有很多共同點。

問題4：

on the pacing here, would you expect this to be running every other meeting?

按照這樣的節奏，您是否認為每隔一次會議都會進行這樣（大幅降息）的討論？

回答4：

Once we get into next year , we're going to take it meeting by meeting, as I mentioned, we would. There's no sense that the committee feels it's in a rush to do this. We made a good, strong start to this. And that's really, really, really, really, this. And that really, really, this. a sign of our confidence, confidence in inflation is coming down toward 2% on a sustainable basis. That gives us the ability we can, you know, make a good, strong start. But, and I'm very pleased that weid me the logic of this, both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint, was clear, but I think we're going to go carefully meeting by meeting and make our decisions as we go.

一旦進入明年，我們將逐次會議討論此事，正如我之前提到的那樣。委員會不會急於這樣做（降降息）。我們已經取得了良好的開端。坦白說，這確實表明了我們的信心，相信通膨率將以可持續的方式下降到 2%。這讓我們有能力取得良好的開端。但是，我很高興我們做到了，無論是從經濟角度還是從風險管理角度來看，這其中的邏輯都很明確，但我認為我們將在每次會議上謹慎行事，並隨著時間推進做出決定。

問題5：

Your colleagues in your economic projections today see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4% and staying there, obviously, historically, when the unemployment rate climbs that much over a relatively short period of time, it doesn't typically. can walk us through why you see the labor market stabilizing sort of, what's the mechanism there, and what do you see as the risks?

您的同事在今天的經濟預測中預測失業率將攀升至4.4% 並保持在這個水平，顯然，從歷史上看，當失業率在相對較短的時間內攀升到這個水平時，它通常不會停止，而是會繼續上升。所以為什麼您認為勞動市場會趨於穩定，其中的機制是什麼，您認為有哪些風險？

回答5：

So again, the labor market is actually in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy. The US economy is in good shape. It's growing at a solid pace.com Inflation is acecom.com down. labor market is in a strong pace. We want to keep it there that's what we're doing.

所以，勞動市場實際上處於穩健狀態，我們今天採取政策措施的目的是維持這種狀態。你可以說整個經濟都是如此。美國經濟狀況良好。它正以穩健的速度增，通膨正在下降，勞動力市場發展強勁。我們希望保持這種狀態，這就是我們正在做的事情。

問題6：

「新聯準會通訊社」Nick Timiraos 的提問，鑑於近期就業數據的大幅修正，今天的行動是否構成追趕，或者這次比典型降息幅度更大的降息是政策利率名義水平上升的結果，因此可以預期加速降息的節奏將繼續下去？

回答6：

multiple questions in every list. So I would say we don't think we're behind. We do not think we're. We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind. So it's a strong. move.

我們不認為我們落後（於曲線）了。我們認為這是及時的（降息），但我認為你可以把這看作是我們承諾不落後（於曲線）的標誌。所以這是一個強而有力的舉措。

I think it's about we come into this with a policy position that was put in place. As you know, I mentioned in July of 2023 which was a time of high inflation and very low unemployment, we've been very patient about reducing the policy rate. We've waited. Other central banks around the world have cut many of them several thattimes. We've waited and I patid really paid dividends in the form of our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably under 2% so I think that is what enables us to take this strong move today.

我認為，關鍵在於我們以既定的政策立場來回應這個問題。如你所知，我提到，2023 年 7 月是高通膨和低失業率時期，我們一直非常耐心地等待降低政策利率的時機。我們一直在等待。世界各地的其他央行已經多次降息，但聯準會一直在等待，我認為這種耐心確實帶來了回報，我們有信心通膨率將持續低於2%，所以我認為這就是我們今天能夠採取這一有力舉措的原因。

I do not think that anyone should look at this and say, Oh, this is the new pace. You know, you have to think about it in terms of the base case. Of course, what happens will happen. So in the base case, what you see is, look at the SEP you see cuts moving along. The sense of this is we're recalibrating policy down over time to more 下ne level, and we're moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy. And the base case, the economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower, .

我認為，任何人都不應該看到這一點就說，哦，（降息50 個基點）這是新的節奏。你知道，你必須從基本場景的角度來考慮。當然，該發生的事總是會發生。所以在基本情況下，你看到的是，看看 SEP，你會看到降息在進行。這意味著我們正在隨著時間的推移將政策重新調整到更中性的水平，我們正在以我們認為適合經濟發展的步伐前進。在基本場景下，經濟發展的方式可能會導致我們走得更快或更慢，但這就是基本場景所說的。

問題7：

If I could follow up on the balance sheet in 2019 when you did the mid cycle adjustment, you ceased the balance sheet runoff with a larger cut. Today, is there any should there be any signal inferred about how the committee would approach end state on the balance shes> br>

有關2019 年的資產負債表，當時您進行了中期週期調整，停止了資產負債表縮減，並進行了更大的降息。今天，是否有任何訊號可以推斷委員會將如何處理資產負債表政策的最終狀態？

回答7：

So in the current situation, reserves have really been stable. They haven't come down. So reserves are still abundant and expected to remain so for some time. As you know, the shrinkage in our balance sheet has really come out of the overnightthFP. what that tells you is we're not thinking about stopping runoff because of this at all. We know that these two things can happen side by side, in a sense, they're both a form of normalization Andtime for a normalization. you can have the balance sheet shrink, you would also be cutting rates.

因此，在當前情況下，銀行儲備金確實很穩定。它們沒有下降。因此儲備金仍然充足，預計還會持續一段時間。如您所知，我們的資產負債表的縮減確實是一夜之間發生的。我們根本沒有考慮會停止縮表。我們知道這兩件事（降息 + 縮表）可以同時發生，從某種意義上說，它們都是一種正常化。因此，在一段時間內，您可以縮減資產負債表，同時還可以降低利率。

問題8：

just following up on rising unemployment, 點 it demand have softened. is do you not? Why should we not expect a further deterioration in labor market conditions if policy is still restricted?

跟進失業率上升的問題，您是否認為這只是勞動市場正常化的結果？供應增加，還是有什麼跡象表明，鑑於勞動力需求的其他指標已經減弱，也許正在發生更令人擔憂的事情？您不這麼認為嗎？如果利率政策仍然具有限制性，為什麼我們不應該預期勞動市場狀況會進一步惡化？

回答8：

So I think what we' re seeing is clearly labor market conditions have cooled off by any measure, as I talked about in Jackson Hole and but they're still at a level. The level of those conditions is actually prettyclose to max I wuled close to max cooman,close to max youclose,close to max mem. . So you're close to mandate, maybe at mandate on that. So what's driving it? Clearly, payroll job creation has moved down over the last few months, and this bears watching, meant by many other asures, the labor. to or below 2019 levels, which was a very good, strong labor market, but this is more sort of 2018、2017. So the labor market bears close watching, and we'll be giving it that but weulti close watchth, and we'll be giving it thateve weultimate, we. , with an appropriate recalibration of our policy that we can continue to see the economy growing and that will support the labor market in the meantime, if you look at the growth and economic activity data, retail sales data that we just got, second quarter GDP , all of this indicates an economy that is still growing at a solid pace, So that should also support the labor market over time.

很明顯，無論以何種標準衡量，勞動力市場狀況都已經降溫，就像我在傑克遜霍爾會議上談到的那樣，但它們仍然處於一定水平。這些條件的水平實際上非常接近我所說的充分就業。所以接近聯準會的法定使命，也許已經達到法定使命了。那麼是什麼推動了它呢？顯然，就業機會創造在過去幾個月有所下降，這值得關注，從許多其他指標來看，勞動力市場已經回到或低於2019 年的水平，當時是一個非常好、強勁的勞動力市場，但現在更像是2018 年、2017 年的情況。因此，勞動力市場需要密切關注，我們也會給予關注，但最終，我們相信，透過適當調整政策，我們可以繼續看到經濟成長，這將支持勞動力市場，同時，如果你看看成長和經濟活動數據、我們剛剛得到的零售額數據、第二季的GDP，所有這些都顯示美國經濟仍在穩定成長，因此這也應該會隨著時間的推移支持勞動市場。

So, but again we're watching, and just on the point about starting to see rising layoffs. If that were to happen, wouldn't the committee already be too late in terms of avoiding a recession?

追問：所以，我們再次關注，並且正值裁員人數開始上升之際。如果發生這種情況，委員會在避免經濟衰退方面是否已經太遲了？

So we're, that's, you know, our plan, of course, has been to begin to recalibrate, and we're not seeing rising claims, we 're not seeing rising layoffs, we're not seeing that, and we're not hearing that from companies that that's something that's getting ready to happen. So we're not waiting for that's getting ready to happen. So we're not waiting for that'sben that that nowin 因為時間 to support the labor market is when it's strong, and not when you begin to see the White House. There's some more on that. So that's the situation we're in. We have, in fact, begun the cutting cycle now andwe're in. We have, in fact, begun the cutting cycle now andwe're we'll be watching, and that will be one of the factors that we consider. Of course, we're going to look at the totality of the data as we make these decisions, meeting by meeting.

我們的計畫當然是開始重新調整政策，我們沒有看到失業救濟申請數量上升，也沒有看到裁員人數上升，也沒有聽到公司說這些事情即將發生。所以我們不會等待，因為，有人認為，支持勞動市場的最佳時機是當它強勁時。關於這一點，還有更多內容。這就是我們所處的情況。事實上，我們現在已經開始了降息週期，我們會密切關注（勞動市場降溫），這將是我們考慮的因素之一。當然，在每次會議上，我們都會查看所有數據，然後做出這些決定。

問題9：

what would constitute for you and the committee a deterioration in the labor market you're pricing in, basically, by the end of next year, 200 basis points of cuts just to maintain a higher unemployment Rate. Would you be moas to a more style higher unemployment Rate. Would you be moas to a more style ving monyle, 完成, moather to a , as you did with inflation, waiting until the data gave you a signal

什麼會對您和委員會構成「勞動市場的惡化」？您認為，到明年底，降息 200 個基點只是為了維持較高的失業率。您會採取更具先發制人的貨幣政策風格嗎？而不是像您在通膨問題上所做的那樣，等到數據給您一個訊號再行動。

回答9：

we're going to be watching all of the data, right? So if, as I mentioned in my remarks, if the labor market were to slow unexpectedly, then we have the ability to react to that by cutting faster. We're also going to be looking at our其他 mandate. Though we have greater confidence now that inflation is moving down to 2% but at the same time, our plan is that we will be at 2% over time. So and policy we think is still resemn that shill happening.

我們會關注所有數據，因此，如果勞動市場意外放緩，我們有能力透過加快降息來應對。我們也將關注另一個通膨的使命。雖然我們現在更有信心通膨率正降到 2%，但與此同時，我們的計劃是隨著時間的推移通膨率將達到 2%。因此，我們認為政策仍然具有限制性，因此應該仍會如此。

I'm just curious as to how sensitive you'll be to the labor market, since you forecast we are going to see higher unemployment, and it is going to take a significant amount of monetary easing to just maintain it.

追問：我只是好奇您對勞動市場的敏感度如何，因為您預測我們將會看到更高的失業率，而且需要大量的貨幣寬鬆政策才能維持這種狀態。

So you know what I would say is we don't think we need to see further losing in labor market conditions to get inflation down to 2% but we have a dual mandate. And I think you can take this, this whole action as takes take a step back. What have we been trying to achieve? We're trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind inscrease increase increase increase increase increase increase increase in做了unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation. That's what we're trying to do, and I think you can take today's action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal.

我想說的是，我們認為我們不需要看到勞動市場狀況進一步惡化來把通膨率降至 2%，但我們有雙重使命。我認為你可以把這整個行動看成是退一步思考。我們一直在努力實現什麼目標？我們正努力實現一種局面，即恢復價格穩定，而不會出現有時伴隨通貨緊縮而來的那種痛苦的失業率上升。這就是我們正在努力做的事情，我認為你可以把今天的行動看作是我們實現這一目標的堅定承諾的標誌。

問題10：

You're describing this view that you don't think you're behind when it comes to the job market. Can you walk us through the specific data points that you found to be most helpful in the discussions at this meeting? You mentioned abut you beion in the discussions at this meeting? You mentioned abut you beioned abut yoube beion able to walk us through what that dashboard told you as far as what you know about the job market now?

您描述了這種觀點，即聯準會認為自己在就業市場方面並不落後。能向我們介紹一下您認為在本次會議討論中最有幫助的具體數據點嗎？您提到了幾個，目前就業市場還有哪些資訊可以關注？

回答10：

Sure. So start with unemployment , which is the single most important one. Probably you're at 4.2% that's, you know, I know that's higher than we were. We were used to seeing numbers in the mid and even we were. We were used to seeing numbers in the mid and even below mid threes last earyoul. back over the sweep of the years, that's a low, that's a very healthy unemployment rate. And anything in the low fours is, A, really, is a good labor market. So that's one thing. Participation is at high svel, you know, we've had, we're right adjusted for demographics, for aging, participation, said, at pretty high levels, that's a good thing. Wages are still a bit above what would be their wage inc. Rather wather inc. just a bit above where they would be over the very longer term to be consistent with 2% inflation, but they're very much coming down to what that sustainable level is. So we feel good about that. what is still a very strong level. It's not as high as it was. That number reached two to one, two vacancies for every unemployed person as measured, it's now around one, that that's still, measured, it's now around one, say quits have come back down to normal levels. I mean, that could go on and on there.

首先是失業率，這是最重要的因素。失業率 4.2% 比去年高，過去失業率在 3% 的中段或更低，如果回顧這些年，你會發現這是一個很低、非常健康的失業率。任何低於 4% 的失業率都表示勞動力市場狀況良好。這是一方面。就業參與率處於高水平，我們已經根據人口統計、老化等因素進行了調整，就業參與率處於相當高的水平，這是件好事。薪資仍略高於應有的薪資成長水平，更確切地說，仍略高於與 2% 通膨率保持一致的長期薪資成長水平，但它們正在逐漸降至可持續水平。所以我們對此感到滿意。每位失業人員對應的空缺職位數下降，但仍是非常強勁的水平，沒有以前那麼高了，以前達到二比一，即每名失業者對應兩個職位空缺，現在大約是一比一，這仍然是一個非常好的數字。辭職率已經回落到正常水平，這種情況可能會持續下去。

There are many, many employment indicators. What do they say? They say this is still a solid labor market. The question isn't the level. The question is that there has been change over, particularly over the last few months, and you know, so what we say is, as the upside risk to inflation have really come down, the downside risk to loyloyment have inweed really come down, the downside risk to 調查and held our fire on cutting wall inflate While inflation has come down. I think we're now in a very good position to manage the risks to both of our goals.

就業指標很多。它們怎麼說呢？它們說這仍然是一個穩固的勞動市場。問題不在於水平。問題在於，特別是在過去幾個月裡，情況發生了變化，所以我們說，隨著通膨的上行風險確實下降，就業的下行風險增加了，因為我們一直保持耐心，在通膨下降的同時，控制通脹。我認為我們現在處於非常有利的位置，可以管理我們兩個使命各自面臨的風險。

And what do you expect to learn between now and November that will help inform the scale of the cut of the next meeting?

追問：您期望從現在到11 月之間了解到哪些信息，以協助確定下次會議的降息幅度？

You know, more data. The usual. Don't look for anything else. We'll see another labor report. We'll see another jobs report. I think we get. We actually, we could to, we get a second jobs report on the day of the meeting. I think, no, no, on the Friday before the meeting. So and inflation data we'll get, we' ll get all this data we'll be watching. You know, it's always a question of, look at the incoming data and ask, what are the implications of that data for the evolving outlook and the balance of risks And then goough our process and think, what's the right thing to do? Is policy where we want it to be, to foster the achievement of our goals over time. So that's what it is, and that's what we'll be doing.

你知道，更多的數據。和往常一樣。不要再尋找其他東西了。我們將看到兩份勞動力報告，我們還將獲得通膨數據，即所有這些我們將關注的數據。你知道，這總是一個問題，看看傳入的數據，並問，這些數據對不斷變化的前景和風險平衡有何影響？然後透過我們的流程思考，什麼是正確的做法？政策是否符合我們的期望，是否有助於實現我們的目標。所以這就是我們要做的。

問題11：

we've only been running a little above 100,000 jobs a month on payrolls last three months. Do you view that level of job creation as worrying or alarming, or would you be would you be content if we were to kind of stick at that level? And we , content if we were to kind of stick at that level? And wely, content if level letends level後

過去三個月，我們每月新增就業人數僅略高於10 萬個。您認為這種就業機會增加水準令人擔憂或發出警報嗎？或者，如果我們一直保持這種水平，您會感到滿意嗎？與此相關的是，過去幾年令人欣喜的趨勢之一是勞動力市場熱度透過職缺釋放出來，而不是職缺減少。您認為這種趨勢會持續下去嗎？或者，您認為勞動市場進一步降溫的風險將不得不透過職位減少來實現？

回答11：

So on the job creation, it depends on the inflows, right? So if you're having millions of people come into the labor force then, and you're creating 100,000 jobs, you're going to see unemployment go up. So 5ally, you're going to see unemployment go up. So ally ally' underlying the volatility of people coming into the country. We understand there's been quite an influx across the borders, and that has actually been one of the things that's allowed unemployment ower rise rate and the ich thing 是something we also watch carefully. So it does depend on what's happening on the supply side and on the curve.

就業創造取決於人口流入就業市場，所以，如果有數百萬人進入勞動市場，而且只創造了10 萬個就業機會，那麼失業率就會上升。所以，這其實取決於流入該國的人口波動背後的趨勢。我們知道跨境移民流入量相當大，這其實是失業率上升的原因之一，另一個因素是招募速度放緩，這也是我們密切關注的因素。所以，這確實取決於供應方面和供需曲線的情況。

So we all felt on the committee, not all, but I think everyone on the committee felt that job openings were so elevated that they could fall a long way before you hit the part of the curve where job openings turned into higher unemployment, job loss. And yes, I mean, I think we are. It's hard to know that. You can't know these things with great precision, appeattain precisionly appeattain that we're very close to that point, if not at it so that further declines in job openings will translate more directly into into unemployment. But it's been, it's been a great ride down。 of tightness come out of the labor market in that form without it resulting in lower employment.

因此，我認為委員會的每個人都認為，職位空缺數量如此之高，所以可以長時間下降直到傳導稱更高的失業率上升。很難知道何時達到這一點。你不可能非常準確地知道這些事情，但可以肯定的是，我們非常接近那個點，甚至現在都可能就在這個點上了，那麼職位空缺的進一步減少將更直接地轉化為失業。但這是一個巨大的下降過程。我的意思是，我們已經看到勞動市場以這種形式緩解了許多緊張局面，但並沒有導致就業率下降。

問題12：so we've heard some speculation that you may be going with the federal funds rate to three and a half, maybe under 4% and there's basically an entire generation that has experienced zero or near zero federal fund rate as something we're heading in that direction. Again. What's the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm?

我們聽到一些猜測，稱聯邦基金利率可能會降至3.5%，也許低於4%，而基本上整整一代人都經歷過零或接近零的聯邦基金利率，我們正朝著這個方向前進。廉價貨幣 / 超低利率重新成為常態的可能性有多大？

回答12：

So this is a question. You mean, after we get through all of this, it's just great question that we just we can only speculate about. Intuitively, most many, many people anyway, would say we're probably not ing back to dollars of sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, long term bonds trading at negative rates. And it looked like the neutral rate was might even be negative. So there was people were issuing debt, shative thatbates that sh. . Now, my own sense is that that we're not going back to that, but you know, honestly, we're going to find out. But you know, it feels, it feels to me and that the neutral rate is is probably significantly higher than it was back then. How high is it? I just don't think we know it's again, we only know it by its works.

我們只能對此進行推測。直覺上，大多數人會說，我們可能不會回到那個時代，當地有數萬億美元的主權債券以負利率交易，長期債券以負利率交易，而且當時看起來中性利率甚至可能為負。所以有人在以負利率發行債務。這似乎距離現在已經很遙遠了。我的感覺是我們不會回到那個時代，我感覺中性利率可能比當時高很多。它有多高？我也不知道，只能透過它的工作來了解它。

One more, how do you respond to the criticism that will likely come that a deeper rate cut now before the election, has some political motivations.

追問：還有一個問題，您如何回應可能出現的批評，即在選舉前大幅降息是出於某些政治動機？

Yeah, so, you know, this is my fourth presidential election at the at the Fed, and you know, it's always the same. We're always, we're always going into this meeting in particular and asking, what's the right thing to do for the people we serve. And we do that, and we make a decision as a group, and then we announce that, and we make a decision as a group, and then we announce it, and it's that' it is. It's never about anything else. Nothing else is discussed. And I would also point out that the things that we do really affect economic conditions for the most part with with a lag. So nonetheless, this is part with withf is to support the economy on behalf of the American people, and if we get it right, this will benefit the American people significantly. So this really concentrates the mind, and it's something we all take very, verydonser . up any other filters. I think if you start doing that, I don't know where you stop. And so we just want to do that.

這是我在聯準會第四次經歷美國總統大選，你知道，總是一樣。我們總是問自己，對我們服務的美國人民來說，什麼是正確的事。我們這樣做，我們作為一個團體做出決定，然後我們宣布它，它總是如此。它從不涉及其他任何事情。沒有其他討論。我還要指出的是，我們所做的事情確實在很大程度上影響了經濟狀況，而且存在滯後效果。所以儘管如此，這就是我們的工作。我們的工作是代表美國人民支持經濟，如果我們做對了，這將極大地造福美國人民。所以這真的讓我們集中註意力，這是我們都非常非常重視的事情。我們沒有設定任何其他過濾器。否則如果你開始這樣做，我不知道你會在哪裡停下來。

問題13：My first question is,very simply, what message are you trying to send American consumers, the American people with this unusually large rate cut?

我的第一個問題很簡單：透過這次不同尋常的大幅降息，您想向美國消費者、美國人民傳達什麼訊息？

回答13：

I would just say that, you know, the US economy is in a good place and and our decision today is designed to keep it there. More specifically, the economy is growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down closer to our 2wing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down closer to our 2% objective over time, labor market is is still in solid shape. So our intention is really to maintain the strength that we currently see in the US economy, and we'll do that by returning rates from their high level, which has really, which has really the purpose been to get inflation under control. We're going to move those down over time to a more normal level over time,

我只想說，美國經濟狀況良好，我們今天的決定旨在保持這種狀況。更具體地說，經濟正在穩步成長。隨著時間的推移，通膨正在下降接近我們 2% 的目標，勞動市場仍然狀況良好。所以我們的意圖實際上是保持我們目前看到的美國經濟的強勁勢頭，我們將透過把利率從高位拉低來實現這一目標，保持利率高位的目的是控制通膨。我們將隨著時間推移將利率降至更正常的水平。

just a follow up to that, listening to you talk about inflation moving meaningfully down to 2% is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices .

追問：聽您談論通膨率大幅下降至2%，這實際上意味著聯準會在對抗通膨和物價上漲方面取得了決定性的勝利嗎？

No, we're not so inflation. You know what we say is we want inflation. The goal is to have inflation move down to 2% on a sustainable basis. And, you know, we're not really, we're close, but we're not really at 2% and I think we're going to want to see it be, you know, around 2% and close to want to see it be, you know, around 2% and close to want to see it be, you know, around 2% and close to want to 2% for some time, but we're certainly not doing, we're not we're not saying mission accomplished or anything like that. But I have to say, though we're encouraged by the progress that we're encouraged by the progress . /p>

不，我們不會那麼擔心通膨。我們想要（一定程度的）通貨膨脹。目標是讓通膨率可持續降至 2%。但我們現在沒有真正達到 2%，可能會在一段時間內接近 2%，所以我們不會說（對抗通膨的）任務已經完成了這種話。但我必須說，我們對所取得的進展感到鼓舞。

問題14：我只是想知道委員會如何看待我們所看到的持續的住房通膨，您認為住房通膨率這麼高，整體通膨能回到2% 目標嗎？

回答14：

Yeah, so housing inflation is the is the one piece that is kind of dragging a bit. If I can say we know that market rents are doing rel we would want them to do, which is to be moving up at whatatively low levels that the leases that are rolling over are not coming down as much, and OER is coming in high. So, you know, it's been slower than we expected. I think we now understand that slower than we expected. I think we now understand that it's going toitake ose ose somes s somes some 在內 it. to get into this. But, you know, the direction of travel is clear, and as long as market rents remain, you know, relatively low inflation over time that will show up just the time it's taking now, sever that will show up just the time it's taking now, sever tany one or two cycles of of annual lease renewals. So that's, I think we understand that now, I don't think the outcome is in doubt again. As long as market rents remain under control, the outcom in market I would say it's the rest of the rest of the portfolio, of the elements that go into core, PCE, inflation or have behaved pretty well. You know, they're all they all have some volatility. We will get down to 2% inflation, I believe, and I believe that ultimately, we'll get what we need to get out of the housing services piece too, some of your colleagues have experienced concern.

是的，房屋通膨是一個有點拖累的因素。不過現在市場租金正在做我們希望它們做的事情，即在相對較低的水平增長，但是續約房屋的租金並沒有下降那麼多，而 OER 卻很高。所以，房屋通膨降溫的速度比我們預期慢。我認為我們現在明白，那些較低的市場租金需要一段時間才能發揮作用。但是，前進的方向是明確的，只要市場租金保持相對較低的通膨，隨著時間推移，拉低通膨的效果就會顯現出來，這需要幾年，而不僅僅是一兩個年度租約續約週期。所以，我不會因此質疑通膨降溫。只要市場租金保持受控，結果就不會有疑問，另外，經濟數據的其他部分，包括核心 PCE 通膨等表現都相當不錯。你知道，它們都有一定的波動性。我相信，我們的通膨率會降到 2%，我相信，最終，我們也會從房屋服務部分獲得所需的利益。

It's hard to gain that out. The housing market is in part frozen because of lock in with low rates. People don't want to sell their homes, so because they have a very low mortgage to be quite expensive to refinance. As rates come down, people will start to move more, and that's probably beginning to happen already. But remember, when that's probably beginning to happen already. But remember, when that hve g you'wve got' a seller, but you've also got a new buyer, in many cases. So it's not, you know, obvious how much additional demand that would make me the real issue with housing is that we have had and conare on track have not enough housing. And so it's going to be challenging. It's hard to find to zone lots that are in places where people want to live. It's all of the aspects of housing are more and more diff more's all of the aspects of。 going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can can really fix, but I think as we normalize rates, you'll see the housing market normalize. And I mean ultimately, by getting inflation market normalize。 normalized and getting the housing housing cycle normalized, that's the best thing we can do for householders. And then the supply question will have to be dealt with by the market and also by government.

甚至，你知道，這種情況發生的可能性有多大？你會如何應對房地產市場？很難知道。房地產市場（的供應量）在一定程度上被先前人們鎖定的低利率所凍結。人們不想賣掉他們的房子，因為他們的抵押貸款利率很低，而再融資的成本相當高。隨著利率下降，人們將開始更多地搬家，這可能已經開始發生了。但請記住，當這種情況發生時，你有一個賣家，但在很多情況下，你也會有一個新買家。所以，你知道，有多少額外的需求會讓我感到不明顯。住房的真正問題是，我們已經擁有並將繼續擁有不足的住房供應。所以這將是一個挑戰。很難找到人們想住的地方的分區地。住房的所有方面都越來越困難。你知道，我們要從哪裡獲得供應？這不是聯準會能夠真正解決的問題，但我認為隨著利率正常化，你會看到房地產市場正常化。我的意思是，最終，透過降低通貨膨脹率、使利率正常化、使住房週期正常化，這是我們能為家庭做的最好的事情。然後，供應問題必須由市場和政府來解決。

問題15：Just following up on some of the labor market talk earlier. You know, monetary policy operates with long and variable lags , and I'm wondering how much you see being able to keep the unemployment rate from rate right raising too much comes from the fact that you're starting to act now, and that's going to give people more room to run going labor market is strong. And then also, if I could following up on next question, do you see today's 50 basis point move as partially a response to the fact that you didn't cut in July, and get to ort of se to the fact the the you didn't cut in July, and gets to ort same place.

貨幣政策的運作具有長期和可變的滯後性，我想知道你認為能夠阻止失業率上升太多的程度有多大，這要歸功於你現在開始採取行動，這將給人們更多的迴旋餘地，而不是僅僅因為勞動力市場強勁。然後，如果我可以跟進下一個問題，你是否認為今天降息 50 個基點是對你在 7 月沒有降息這一事實的回應和補償？

回答15：

So you're right about lags, but I would just point to the overall economy. You have an economy that is growing at a at a solid pace. If you look at forecasters or economy that is growing at a at a solid pace. If you look at forecasters or ec to companies, they'll say that they think 2025 sooo to companies, they'll say that they think 2025 stalk to companies, they'll say that they think 2025 thmbe thobe a thm think 2025 to thobe a thr. . So there's no sense in the US economy. Basically fine, if you talk to market participants. I mean, I mean, you know, business people who are actually out there doing business. So I nowth. I think our move is timely. I do. And as I said, you can, you can see our, our our 50 basis point move as as a commitment to make sure that we don't fall behind. So you'really ask. about your second question. You're asking about July. And I guess if you, if you ask, you know, if we gotten the July report before the meeting, would we have cut we might well of we didn't make thatsion , but you know that we might well have, I think that's not, you know, that doesn't really answer the question that we ask ourselves, which is, let's look, you know, when at this meeting, which is, let's look, you know, when at this meeting were' to the July employment report, the August employment report, the two CPI reports, one of which came, of course, during blackout, and all the other things that I mentioned, we're looking at all of those things and we're asking ourselves, what's the right what's our what's the policy stance we need to move to? We knew it's clear that we clearly, literally everyone on the committee agreed that it's time to move big as justhow , hust unhow s time to move , wust unhow , s time to move, s time to move , s time to move , wust unhow , time to memhow , show unhow you time time to memh y time to move , s time to move, s time to moveohow s time to move, s time to moveohow s time to move , wust unhow. you think about the pass forward? So this decision we made today had broad support on the committee, and I've discussed the path ahead. Elizabeth,

你對滯後的看法是對的，但我只想指出整體經濟。美國經濟正在穩步成長。如果你看看預測者或與公司交談，他們會說他們認為 2025 年也應該是好年。所以美國經濟基本上沒問題。我認為我們的舉措是及時的。你可以把我們的 50 個基點調整視為一種承諾，以確保我們不會落後。如果在7 月FOMC 會議前拿到當月非農數據，我們當時是否會降息呢，可能會，但是我認為這並沒有真正回答我們問自己的問題，那就是，讓我們看看，在這次會議上，我們回顧了7 月份的就業報告、8 月份的就業報告、兩份CPI 報告，其中一份是在靜默期內發布的，以及我提到的所有其他事情，我們正在研究所有這些事情，我們在問自己，什麼是正確的，我們需要採取什麼樣的政策立場？我們知道，很明顯，委員會中的每個人都同意是時候採取行動了。只是規模有多大，速度有多快，你對未來利率路徑有什麼看法？所以我們今天做出的這個決定得到了委員會的廣泛支持，我已經討論了未來的道路。

問題16：mortgage rates have already been dropping in anticipation of this announcement. How much more should borrowers expect those rates to drop over the next year?

房貸抵押貸款利率已經在預期降息時就下降了。預計明年這些利率還會下降多少？

回答16：

Very hard for me to say that's from our standpoint. I can, I can't really speak the mortgage rates. I will say, you know, that will depend on on how the economy evolves. Our our intention, thtricough, is we how the economy evolves。 . We think that it's time to begin the process of recalibrating it to a level that's more neutral, rather than restricted. We expect that process to take some time, as you can see in the projections to that relthingas day 有 the projection day, . out according to that forecast, other rates in the economy will come down as well. However, the rate at which those things happen will really depend on how the economy performs. We can't see, we cant looks. know what the economy is to be doing.

從我們的角度來看，我很難說。我不能真正談論抵押貸款利率。我會說，這取決於經濟如何發展。但我們的意圖是，我們認為我們的政策是適當的限制性。我們認為是時候開始將其重新調整到更中性而不是維持限制性的水平了。我們預計這個過程需要一些時間，正如你在我們今天發布的預測中所看到的，如果事情按照預測發展，經濟中的其他利率也會下降。然而，這些事情發生的速度實際上取決於經濟的表現。我們無法看到，我們無法展望一年後的經濟狀況。

What's your message to households who are frustrated that home prices have still stayed so high as rates have been high? What do you say to those households?

追問：對於那些因為利率居高不下而房價居高不下的家庭，您有什麼話要說？

Well, I can what I can say to the public is that we had the highest we had a burst of inflation.Many other countries around the world had had a similar burst of inflation. And when that happens, part of the answer is that we raise interest rates in order to cool the economy off in order to reduce inflationary pressures. It's not something that people experience as ple pressures. It's not something that people experience at ple pleem, cem ple ple sh ple pleem, cem pleh ple sh ple pleem, cem ple語get is low inflation restored. Price stability, restored. And a good definition of price stability is that people in their daily decisions, they're not thinking about inflation anymore. That's where everyone wants to be, is back to now' , just keep it low, keep it stable. We're restoring that. So what we're going through now, really, it restores it will benefit people over a long period of time. Price stability benefits everybody over period , just by virtue of the fact that they don't have to deal with inflation. So that's what's been going on. And I think we've made real progress. I completely we don't tell people how to thono about the ececs, ecple how to thonoink the ecec't, people how to thonoink the ececs ececple 3ec, 3ecs 3ec。 of course, and of course, people are experiencing high prices, as opposed to high inflation, and we understand that's painful.

我可以告訴大眾的是，我們經歷了最高的通貨膨脹，世界上許多其他國家也經歷過類似的通貨膨脹。當這種情況發生時，部分解決方案是我們提高利率，以便冷卻經濟，從而減少通膨壓力。這不是人們會感到愉快的事情，但最終，我們得到的是恢復低通膨。恢復價格穩定。價格穩定的一個好定義是，人們在日常決策中不再考慮通貨膨脹。這就是每個人都希望的，即保持通膨在低位和穩定。我們正在恢復這種狀態。所以我們現在正在經歷的，真的，恢復這種狀態將在很長一段時間內使人們受益。價格穩定在很長一段時間內使每個人都受益，因為他們不必應對通貨膨脹。這就是正在發生的事情。我認為我們已經取得了真正的進步。我完全不會告訴人們應該如何看待經濟，當然，人們正在經歷高物價，而不是高通膨，我們理解這是痛苦的。

問題17：I was wondering if you could go through you said just at the beginning that coming into the blackout, there was like an open thought of 25 or 50. You know, the fact that we're either 25 or 50, I would sort of argue that when we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York President we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York President John Williams, the were were, John Williams were sort of saying that maybe a gradual approach was going to win the day. I mean, I sort of want to ask a seven part question about this. But I mean, could you talk, would you have cutates rates 50 if the market had been pricing in, like, low odds of a 50 point move, like they were last Wednesday. You know, after the CPI number came out, there's a really small probability of a 50 point cut. Does it play playing. at all.

聯準會官員剛進入公開演講的靜默期時，人們對於降息 25 個基點還是 50 個基點持開放態度。理事沃勒和紐約聯邦儲備銀行主席威廉斯的演講也說漸進式降息會佔上風。如果市場定價的是不太可能降息 50 個基點，您這次還會大幅降息嗎？市場的定價押注是否影響到聯準會的決策？

回答17：

Thank you. We're always going to try to do what we think is the right thing for the economy at that time. That's what we'll do, and that's what we did today.

我們總是會盡力做我們認為對當時的經濟有利的事。這就是我們要做的，也是我們今天所做的。

問題18：you've mentioned how closely you're watching the labor market, but you also noted that payroll numbers have been a little bit less reliable lately because of the big downward revisions. Does that put your focus overw幫助trigger another 50 basis point cut.

您提到您密切關注勞動力市場，但您也指出，由於遭遇大幅下修，最近就業人數的可靠性有所下降。這是否意味著您的注意力主要集中在失業率上？鑑於 SEP 預測的 4.4% 基本上是週期中的失業率峰值，超過這一水平是否會引發另一次 50 個基點的大幅降息？

回答18：

So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data, including the payroll numbers. We're not discarding those. I mean, we'll certainly look at those, but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the Q, C, E, W adjustment, which you referred to. There isn't a bright line, you know, it will be the light that the unemployment rate's very important, of course, but there isn't a single statistic or a single bright line over the move that thing or a single bright line over might, that thing that would dictate one thing or another. We'll look at each meeting, we'll look at all the data on inflation, economic activity and the labor market, and we'll make decisions about is our policy steds where it we'll make decisions about 是to, you know, to foster over the medium term, our mandate goals. Yeah, so I can't, I can't say we, we have a bright line in mind.

我們將繼續關注廣泛的勞動市場數據，包括非農業就業。我們不會放棄這些數據。我的意思是，我們肯定會關注這些數據，但我們在心理上會傾向於根據您提到的 QCEW 調整來調整它們。沒有一條明確的界線，當然，失業率非常重要，但沒有一個統計數據或一條明確的界線可以決定這件事或那件事。我們會在每次會議上，查看有關通貨膨脹、經濟活動和勞動力市場的所有數據，並決定我們的政策立場，以便在中期內促進我們的授權使命。所以我不能說我們心中有一條明確的界線。

問題19：I know that you discussed earlier how the Fed does whatever the right thing is and nothing else factors in. But in general, can you talk about whether or not you believe a sitting US president should have a say in fed decisions on interest rates? Because that's something that former President Trump, who obviously points of view, hasthing that former President Trump, who obviously points of view, hasvious and to sooaled independent, but why can you tell the public why you view that so important?

我知道您之前討論過美聯儲會做正確的事情，其他因素都不合適考慮。但總的來說，您能否談談您是否認為現任美國總統應該對聯準會的利率決策有發言權？因為這是前總統川普之前提出的，他顯然有自己的觀點，我知道聯準會的設計初衷是獨立的，但為什麼您能告訴大眾您認為這一點如此重要呢？

回答19：

Sure, so countries that are democracies around the world, countries that are sort of like the United States, all have what are called independent central banks. And the reason is that that people have found, over time, that insulating the central bankulating the autkingl 5000m 完成 oidulating the horkingl oidulating monetary policy in a way that that favors, maybe people who are in office as opposed to people who are not in office. So that that's, that's the idea, is that, you know, I that that's, that's the idea, is that, you know, I that 數據 data are thatclear that that thatclear the em that thatclear that arehents thatem that thatem that 顏色 that that路線 that that thatclear that arehents thatem that thatem that areal that） central banks, they get lower inflation. And so we're, you know, we're not, we do our work to serve all Americans. We're not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, noany issue, nothing . It's just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans, and that's how the other central banks are set up to it. It's a good institutional arrangement which has been good for the public, and hope and beve will. You know, continue.

當然，像美國這樣的民主國家都有所謂的獨立央行。原因是，隨著時間推移，人們發現，將央行與政治當局的直接控制隔離開來，可以避免制定僅有利於在位者的貨幣政策。這就是我們的想法，我認為數據清楚地表明，擁有獨立央行的國家通膨率較低。所以我們的工作是為了服務所有美國人。我們不為任何政客、任何政治人物、任何事業、任何議題服務，什麼都不為。我們只是為所有美國人實現最大化就業和物價穩定，其他央行就是這樣成立的。這是一個對公眾有利的良好制度安排，我希望並堅信它會繼續下去。

問題20：a couple regulatory developments in the past week that I want to ask you about. First last week, Vice Chair for supervision, Michael Barr outlined his views for the changes to the Basel three end game. I'm wondering if you are in line with him on those changes should be if those have support the board in a broad way that you're looking for, and if you think the other agencies are also fully on board with that approach

我想問您關於過去一周的幾個監管發展。首先，上週聯準會負責監管的副主席 Michael Barr 概述了他對巴塞爾協議三監管規則變更的看法。我想知道您是否同意他的觀點，是否其他機構也完全支持這種方法？

回答20：

So the answer to your question is that, yes, those those changes were negotiated between the agencies with my support and with my involvement, with the idea that we were going to re propose, we propose the changes that we, we were going to re propose, we propose the changes that we, that Vtalkir and Barrned that take s that take take taked on them. So yes, that that is, you know, that's happening with my support. That's not a final proposal, though. You understand, we're putting them out for comment. We're going to take compriment and ake 字that we don't have a, we don't have a calendar date for that. And as for the other agencies, you know, the idea is that we're all moving together. We're not moving parately. So that Itely. So that Itely. So that Itely. So that Itely. So that Itely. So that Itely. So that Itely. So that Itely. don't, I don't know exactly where that is, but the idea is that we will move as a group to put this again out for comment, and then, you know, it'll, it'll come the comment, and then, you know, it'll, it'll come the comments will come back 60 days later, and we'll dive into them, and we'll try to bring this to a conclusion sometime in the first half of next year.

對你問題的回答是「是的」，這些變化是在我支持和參與下由各機構協商達成的，我們的想法是重新提出，我們提出巴爾副主席談到的變化，然後徵求意見。所以是的，那是在我的支持下發生的。但這不是最終提案。你知道，我們正在徵求意見。我們將徵求意見並做出適當的改變，但我們沒有具體的日期。至於其他機構，你知道，我們的想法是我們都一起行動。我們不會分開行動。所以我不知道具體在哪裡，但我們的想法是，我們將作為一個團隊再次將這個問題提出來徵求意見，然後，你知道，60 天后我們會收到評論，我們會深入研究它們，並嘗試在明年上半年的某個時候得出結論。

Then yesterday, there were merger reform finalizations from the other bank regulators. What does that have to do to align itself on merger?

追問：昨天，其他銀行監理機關也敲定了合併改革方案。這對合併有什麼影響？

You know, I would, I would bounce that question to Vice Chair Barr. It's a good question, but I don't have that today. Thanks Jennifer for the last question.

你知道，我會把這個問題轉交給巴爾副主席。這是個好問題，但我今天沒有答案。

問題21：you said earlier that the decision today reflects with appropriate recalibration, strength in the labor market that can be maintained in the context of moderate growth, even though the policy statement says you view the risks to inflation and job growth as roughly balanced, given says you've said. Though today, I'm curious, are you more worried said. Though today, I'm curious, are you morewhat worried about the jobth the j inflation? Are they not roughly balanced?

您之前說過，今天的決定反映了經過適當調整後，勞動力市場在溫和增長的背景下仍能保持強勁，儘管政策聲明中說，您認為通脹和就業成長的風險大致平衡，不過我很好奇，您是否更擔心就業市場和成長而不是通膨？它們不是大致平衡的嗎？

回答21：

No, I think, I think, and we think they are now roughly balanced. So if you go back for a long time, the risks were on inflation. We had historically tight labor market, historically tight. There was a severe labor shor 它, labor market, historically tight. There was a severe laboror tage so very, market, and we had inflation way above target. So you know that said to us, concentrate on inflation. Concentrate on inflation. And we did for a while, and we and we kept at that, that the stance that we put in place 14 months ago was a stance that was focused on bringing down inflation. Part of bringing down inflation, though, is is cooling off the economy, and a little bit cooling off the labor market. You now have a cooler labor market bit cooling off the labor market. You now have a cooler labor market, in market. of our activity. So what that tells you is it's time to change our stance. So we did that. The sense of the change in the stance is that we're recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will will more recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will will morebe . today was we, I think we made a good, strong start on that. I think it was the right decision, and I think it should send a signal that we, you know, that we're committed to coming upup here,

不，我認為，而且我們認為現在它們大致平衡了。所以如果你回顧很長一段時間，風險在於通貨膨脹過高。我們的勞動市場處於歷史性緊張時期。勞動力嚴重短缺，因此勞動市場非常非常火爆，通貨膨脹率遠高於目標。所以你知道，這告訴我們，要集中精力應對通貨膨脹。我們確實這樣做了一段時間，我們一直堅持這樣做，14 個月前我們制定的立場是專注於降低通貨膨脹。然而，降低通貨膨脹的一部分是冷卻經濟，以及稍微冷卻勞動市場。現在勞動力市場冷卻了，部分原因是我們的活動。所以這告訴你是時候改變我們的立場了。所以我們這樣做了。立場改變的意義在於，我們正在隨著時間的推移重新調整我們的政策，使其立場更加中立。而今天，我認為我們在這方面取得了良好的開端。我認為這是正確的決定，我認為這應該發出一個信號，表明我們致力於達成一個好的結果。

to a shock now that could tip it into recession?

追問： 大幅降息是否會讓市場震驚並覺得經濟衰退臨近呢？

I don't think so. I don't there's as I look, well, let me look at it this way. I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn is elevated. I Okay I don't see that, you see you see growth at a solid rate see that, you see you see growth at a solid rate. see market that's still at very solid levels. It's so, so I don't really see that now.

我不這麼認為。目前，我沒有看到任何跡象表明經濟衰退的可能性增加。你看到經濟成長率穩定。你看到通貨膨脹率下降，你看到勞動市場仍然處於非常穩定的水平。事實就是如此，所以我現在真的看不到這一點。

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