Polymarket's Trump's chances of winning the election dropped to 62%, possibly due to traders' hedging operations

BlockBeats reported that on November 1, according to Polymarket data, Trump’s chances of winning the election have dropped to 62% (previously up to 67%). Some observers believe that the increase in odds reflects the hedging positions between traders, that is, traders are hedging their risks by betting on Harris’s victory because of earlier reports of “Trump’s voting irregularities.”

More researchers pointed out that if traders can access Robinhood Securities and Polymarket at the same time, there is currently a good arbitrage opportunity. Users can bet on Trump’s victory on Robinhood and on Harris on Polymarket, and they will make a profit no matter who wins (Harris’s winning rate on Robinhood Securities is higher than on Polymarket).