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If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may start a series of rapid interest rate cuts as early as June.

2025-03-11 03:20

BlockBeats News, March 11: An institutional analysis pointed out that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting, but if the economic recession fears triggered by the trade war intensify and materialize, it may begin a series of rapid rate cuts starting in June.


At least in the futures market, an increasing number of contracts are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, July, and October, a trend that emerged after last weekend's remarks by U.S. President Trump regarding a "grace period" due to his imposition of tariffs on multiple countries.


Due to concerns that his remarks foreshadow an imminent economic downturn, U.S. stocks and bond yields also fell on Monday.


"Although it may seem calm on the surface, if before the Fed has had a chance to assess the tariffs, and when both labor and financial markets begin to slide, (Fed policymakers) increasingly worry about the risks of the dual mandate and the ability to resist pressure from President Trump's demands for rate cuts," wrote Tim Duy, Chief U.S. Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, in a note, "A sluggish response from the Fed will incur the wrath of the Trump administration." (FXStreet)

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