Original title: "A look at one thousand Solana "smart wallets": Who is making a lot of money? What can we learn from it?"

Original author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently, the difficulty of Meme transactions in the Solana ecosystem has gradually increased, and the number of "golden dogs" has decreased. However, in such an environment, there are still a group of "smart wallets" that are still making a lot of money. Which addresses are still "printing money", what are their trading characteristics, and what indicators are the key to success?

In this article, Odaily sorted out the top holding addresses of 27 popular and large-cap Meme tokens, and summarized and counted their data, totaling 1,080 wallet addresses, to answer the above questions. Among them:

· Market capitalization: greater than 1 million US dollars, including a few tokens with more than 10 million US dollars (rocky) and more than 100 million US dollars (BILLY);

· Top addresses: the top 40 holding addresses of each token, each address has a profit of thousands to hundreds of thousands of US dollars on the corresponding token;

· Data source: mainly from GMGN, and some winning rate data comes from cielo.

Preprocessing and score algorithm

This section details the sample processing method, statistical dimensions and score algorithm. Readers who only want to know the conclusion can directly check the next chapter.

Preprocessing

The following processing was performed on the 1080 top-row wallet addresses

· LP addresses and exchange addresses (such as Matcha, Gate.io, etc.) were eliminated;

· Duplicate addresses (the same address became the front row of multiple high-market-value tokens) were eliminated;

· Addresses that have never purchased any tokens in 30 days were eliminated;

· Addresses with an absolute value of profit of less than US$10 in 30 days were eliminated (due to a large conflict with the subsequent evaluation system, they are not included for the time being);

· Addresses whose winning rate cannot be counted by both GMGN and cielo are not included for the time being.

After processing, a total of 541 wallet addresses remain, which are evaluated by the following dimensions:

Statistical dimensions

Evaluate the wallet based on win rate, stability and profitability, and calculate the score based on the following six dimensions:

1. 30-day wallet win rate;

2. The average of the number of purchases to the profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day purchases);

3. The average of the number of sales to the profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day sales);

4. Total profit amount;

5. The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit (the higher the proportion, the more unstable the profit and the lower the score. It may also be that a single token has a lot of profit, and the rest are all losses, and the total profit is very low, resulting in a high ratio);

6. The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit (the higher the percentage, the greater the drawdown, the lower the score);

Score calculation method

Z-Score (i.e. standard score) is used here to calculate the score. After the above six indicators are calculated using Z-Score, each indicator will be distributed in the [0, 1] interval, so the highest score will be 6 points.

Who is making a lot of money?

After the above method is processed and calculated, the highest score is 4.85 points. This address has only traded 42 times in the past 30 days, with a win rate of 100%, a profit of 106,000 US dollars in 30 days, and a total profit of 436,000 US dollars. The three largest losses add up to only 8,000 US dollars.

The lowest score is 1.1 points. This address has traded 29 times in 30 days, with a win rate of 0% and a loss of 38,000 US dollars in 30 days. The highlight is the three largest profits totaling 40,000 US dollars, but the three largest losses totaled 38,000 US dollars.

Top Ten Expert Features

The average of the top ten addresses with the highest comprehensive scores is calculated, and the data is as follows:

1.30-day wallet win rate: 63.55% (the average of the next 90 is 63.58%)

2. The average of the number of purchases to profit: each purchase has a profit of 4,717 US dollars (the average of the next 90 is 623 US dollars)

3. The average of the number of sales to profit: each sale has a profit of 4,090 US dollars (the average of the next 90 is 628 US dollars)

4. Total profit amount: 980,000 US dollars (the average of the next 90 is 279,000 US dollars);

5. The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit: 90.8% (the average of the next 90 is 90.67%)

6. The absolute value of the top three losses to the total profit: 11.07% (the average of the next 90 is 11.62%)

It can be concluded that the strength of the top 100 players is almost the same, and the top 10 masters only have a slight advantage in retracement control. When other data are almost the same, the difference between the addresses ranked 11-100 in indicators 2 and 3 is mainly because the amount of each purchase is relatively small, so the score is lower.

The top ten addresses are:

6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz

6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU

4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT

9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf

GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEb KrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4Mm GQi

DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm

FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j

69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK 9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9

7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ

4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t

What is the gap between the 101st and 200th place?

The average wallet data of users ranked from 101st to 200th is as follows:

1.30-day wallet win rate: 45%

2. Average of purchase times to profit: $317

3. Average of sales times to profit: $425

4. Total profit amount: $129,000

5. Absolute value of the top three profits to total profit: 145%

6. Absolute value of the top three losses to total profit: 25%

It can be seen that there are considerable gaps in all six dimensions, among which the most obvious gaps are Indicator 2 "Average of purchase times to profit" and indicator 6 Loss ratio, which may mean that when the winning rate is insufficient, they are more keen to buy, resulting in insufficient profits and amplified drawdowns.

What did the ten worst players do?

· 30-day wallet win rate: 17%

· Average of purchases to profit: -10,797 USD

· Average of sales to profit: -23,547 USD

· Total profit amount: -146,000 USD

· Absolute value of the top three profits to total profit: 2092%

· Absolute value of the top three losses to total profit: 642%

It is worth noting that among the ten addresses with the lowest scores, three of them had the largest three profits of $694,000, $403,000 and $150,000 respectively, but their final total profits were very low.

What is the key to success?

In trading, it is often difficult to balance multiple indicators such as win rate, profit and loss ratio, and retracement. What aspects should be focused on to most effectively increase the net value growth of the account in Meme trading?

Here, the Pearson correlation coefficient is used to statistically analyze the relationship between multiple indicators and the final score. The conclusion is as follows:

· The win rate has the strongest correlation with the score (0.610), which shows that Solana's Meme is still an extremely fast PvP battlefield. Maintaining the win rate is more important than maintaining the profit and loss ratio (Diamond Hand failed).

· The second strongest correlation is the maximum loss ratio (-0.495), which shows that controlling retracement is also a key factor, and traders need to control their participating positions or stop losses in time (those who like to hang a single stud may join the worst ten-person package).

· The correlation coefficients between other indicators and scores are all in the "weak correlation category".

· The number of shots is completely unrelated to the score, which means that whether it is crazy P fierce P or occasional shots, the results are basically the same (which may mean that most pump.fun tokens participate in rolling the dice, and ultimately conform to the law of large numbers).

Conclusion

In summary, in the PvP battlefield of Solana Meme, escaping quickly and losing less are the keys to victory.

Odaily reminds that Meme investment is risky, this article is only for reference, and the specific investment targets and styles need to be determined by investors themselves.

Appendix (Top 100 Smart Money Address)

6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz

6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU

4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvD z6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT

9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf

GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQ i

DNfuF1L62WW yW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm

FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j

69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxU Fmps6jYmqhK3q6m9

7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ

4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t

5wPWthsivjuGi43WbTo 5LdSjDTJ8pXSSHyfXWVojJjUF

27nKnCT3DD5NLJw3xbq3KDL3thx6KTe6DmrRCbi2uszE

2zc9rfAQybucpfQxdgW9otWBFnqxDoz5Fva1vD2wmaha

6HRZ8qLqmAu J3anksqAEHLqwN7akoCU1ZjihQyoQbK64

ENRayX3P4At1eBj87TZJvZT1JVCAykwwYB5SjKT6Y2ZA

D49JMtrnenWigKNWxrACtyXfybZLjKsufXvdcD1ng8BA

DVFpA1mKBWSEuyuiWXQEdrhkyZ8mSPM2Fe7y1KhbbqxT

7HUpxcqNkUF2 sGsNcTPMTWTVXok9mUiG8QcRJHM61jys

8deJ9xeUvXSJwicYptA9mHsU2rN2pDx37KWzkDkEXhU6

CeoqFgsd6sob3S1Ka7qDnXj1e76MweXx2cwUrjVqmRmv

6p8cxa2G17qaJf4LnoioyQ2vjmfaY91hc2cYghQiovXf

9NmtJ6M puH8mzNnbQHvwaVpKbs3T51nr6VMFRTshNCMS