August may be a major turning point for the crypto market

Peisen

24-07-27 10:30

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Original title: 《August Window Will Be a Major Inflection Point for Crypto》

Original author: Digital Asset Research

Original translation: Peisen, BlockBeats

Editor's note:

Digital Asset Research shows a high probability of a major event or news from August 6th to 12th through detailed data on timeframes, price ranges, and time angles. The article also compares the current market cycle with previous cycles, points out the timing of market trend changes, and provides ample evidence combined with monthly and weekly chart analysis.

This is something I have discussed publicly for some time, but today I want to reaffirm that the evidence shows that there may be a very significant trend and sentiment change in BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market between August 6th and 12th.

I first mentioned this timeframe a few months ago in my video outlook which you can find here.

Today I will be showing all the evidence that has been built up step by step based on the timeframe, price range and time perspective. I think you will see a high probability of a major event or news happening within this time window.

We will start with the monthly chart and work our way down to the daily chart to show the convergence of multiple factors that we are seeing.

The monthly chart is what we focused on last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we have also added in the months of the previous tops. As you can see, the two previous cycles are nearly identical to the current cycle. 33 months from the major high and 20 months from the major low puts us in the July-September timeframe, which was the last low before the big move higher.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many people think this cycle is different because prices are reaching new all-time highs so quickly. But let's compare the current cycle to the previous ones on the monthly chart.

The evidence is quite stunning. As you can see, with the exception of 2012, the previous two cycles saw prices rise just over 200% from the bear market lows, right in the time frame we are in now. You can see that this time is no different. In fact, time and price are exactly where they should be, neither overextended nor over-expected as some commentators have suggested.

Now we move to the weekly chart, and there is more to discuss. First, we see that every 30 weeks in this cycle there is a major trend change. But what is interesting is that these 30 week cycles fall right between a major low and a major high, occurring at the same time. I will explain why in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30 week cycle falls exactly on the week of August 12th. All three 30 week cycles combined give a total of 90 weeks from the bear market low.

Also, zooming in a little more on the weekly chart. I notice that from the 2017 high to the first significant high in 2021 was 174 weeks. August 12th would be 174 weeks from that significant high in April 2021, which was undoubtedly a significant high. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between two significant inflection points, the 2017 high and the April 2021 high.

Now, based on the evidence we have, this market is in a different phase, and it seems to me that the inflection point is more likely to come in the form of a major low than a major high. But as I have been saying, in these cycles, we tend to see a major high and low at the same time in this window of time.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle, as well as where it was last year at this time in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp move up in August, followed by a rapid decline that can be as much as 20-50%. Last year is different from the other three charts because it was only in the second year of the cycle, but it shows the seasonality of this type of move happening in August.

It also shows that in this cycle, the market has made significant highs and lows around the 30-week inflection point, and the time window is relatively tight.

Now let's look at this from a time perspective. In simple terms, a time perspective is counting 30 calendar days from a significant high or low and looking for a trend change. You simply start at 30 and add up 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, etc. and look for a trend change at these time points. The more concentrated the time points are, the more important that day or week is.

As the chart below shows, all of these time measurements fall into a time perspective window. In this cycle, we have several major highs and lows that all point to the second week of August being a major convergence period.

Finally, from a timeframe perspective, the market has been following a 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days of upswing and 150 days of consolidation. It is important to note that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is, the number of days the market is down should not be more than the number of days it is up. In a bull market, the market will usually be up for longer than it is down, as shown in the chart below. If the market is down for more days than the previous 150 days and a new low is made, this will not be a good sign.

Finally, considering the price range, timeframe, time angle, and seasonality, we are approaching a mid-August window that is likely to be a trigger point for BTC. If this is not enough evidence, please note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won’t dwell on this too much, but birthdates are important, and August is typically the month when major bull runs begin.

That’s why I’m being cautious here, and waiting for this window to end before moving more aggressively. Will we see an ETH ETF finally start trading, followed by a rapid decline like the BTC ETF? Or will we see more political headlines fueling election uncertainty? I’m not entirely sure what it will be, but it’s definitely a period to watch and be patient.