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Can Bitcoin reach new highs? See how traders operate | Trader Observation
Summarized by AI
BTC's October monthly line was officially harvested at 8:00 this morning. October lived up to its reputation as an "uptober". After breaking below 60,000 again in early October, it continued to rise. This time we saw a sustained upward trend.
On October 30, the night of BTC's upward charge, when the market was pinning its hopes on reaching the previous high, BTC ended its charge at just $130 below the previous high. After two days of narrow fluctuations at high levels, with the release of PCE data, the market's expectations for Trump's successful presidential campaign declined. BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold fell in resonance, and Trump Media even hit the limit down circuit breaker.
Many investment bank analysts pointed out that BTC's effective breakthrough and stabilization of $69,000 is proof of getting rid of the 8-month oscillation cycle and the beginning of a new round of trends. Can this view be applied now? See how traders make decisions.
Technical Analysis Pie
As I said, Bitcoin can test 60-70k (retest) before another bullish rally, expect a successful retest and a successful retest can lead another bullish wave towards 80k
The reference period is 4H. Currently, it has fallen to the 68950 area and has temporarily stopped falling, but the next K column has not yet appeared in the 68950 support area for green K closing confirmation. If the current support is broken, look directly down to the 66150 and 65170 areas.
@laban_liI think this is the resonance after the deep sea super crab is completed. This wave of decline is relatively rapid, and the downward trend has not stopped. It is more dangerous to enter the market on the left side. You can try with a loss, but it is still recommended to enter the market on the right side for a more stable level.
The previous prediction of 75k was made 2 months ago. The top of this wave of 73500 is actually not that far away, and it is very likely to be a small top in the near future.
Data Analysis
All exchanges are selling, and the supply in the spot market is relatively firm and obvious, but in the futures market, CME is selling throughout the process. The supply of Binance and OKX has obviously shrunk after the US stock market closed, and a small amount of buying power for bargain hunting has begun to appear;
The main force of option traders entered the market again and continued to be bullish. At 10 o'clock in the morning, 1,000 positions of 85,000 expiring in March next year were bought, and the premium was about 98 BTC, 7.1 million US dollars.
The price of 85,000 started from the price of 61,000 in early October. There were three large-scale bullish purchases by the main force, with a cumulative premium of nearly 15 million US dollars and 2,000 positions.
Based on the order book, it is believed that there is buying here and the callback is basically over.
Analysis from the chain data
STH, short time holder BTC short-term holder
LTH, long time holder BTC
On October 29, STH sold 232,000 pieces and LTH sold 15,000 pieces;
On October 30, STH sold 251,000 pieces and LTH sold 18,000 pieces;
On October 31, STH sold 207,000 pieces and LTH sold 11,000 pieces;
It can be seen that:
1. The main selling pressure from October 28 to October 30 came from "short-term profit" chips, and the main selling pressure on the 31st came from short-term "locked chips";
2. The 29th and 30th were an accelerated distribution process, including LTH and STH. On the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.
3. Continue to observe whether the data continues to slow down or accelerate distribution in the next few days, which can be used as one of the short-term judgment bases.
4. The current average cost of STH is around 64,000. As long as it does not break this position, we believe that the trend remains unchanged.
Macro Analysis School
Geopolitical aspects:
The focus of international geopolitical issues is still Israel and Iran. At present, Netanyahu has revised his son's wedding event, and Iranian leader Khamenei has inspected the border. Both sides are waiting for opportunities. This is a point that needs attention. Of course, I personally expect that there will be no possibility of attacks before the US election day.
On the Russian-Ukrainian side, the United States publicly stated that due to North Korea's deployment of troops into the battlefield, it is very likely that soldiers from a third country will support Ukraine and participate in the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is a manifestation of the United States putting pressure on Russia.
On the Korean-North Korean side, North Korea tested an intercontinental missile into the East Sea, causing tension in the region. The United States issued a statement publicly condemning that it did not notify before the experiment.
Russia and Ukraine are normalized issues, North Korea and South Korea are stimulating events, and Israel and Iran are the "surprises" that the risk market should worry about the most. Although many people are optimistic that Trump can solve these problems, after all, the election has not yet landed. Even if it lands, Trump's handover of power will still have to wait until January next year.
On the stable currency side:
The market value of stable currencies on the market increased by 300 million, and the market value reached 177.3 billion. Some of this is inflow of funds, and some of the funds on the market are retained after leaving the market.
USDT: The official website data shows 120.573 billion, an increase of 0.69 billion compared to yesterday, with a small inflow of funds;
USDC: The data website shows that the market value increased by 2.05, accompanied by a decrease in trading volume, and there is a possibility of capital inflow.
BTC has experienced a decline in volume after the previous two days of rise, the selling pressure has decreased, and the price has stabilized. This will lead to further price breakthroughs, which is a good thing.
Although many people are shouting that the altcoin season is coming, judging from the active trading volume, both buyers and sellers are still active, the volume is small, and the mood is still not optimistic enough.
The optimistic start of the altcoin still requires BTC to stabilize after refreshing its historical height.
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