With the improvement in US employment data, the November JOLTs job openings far exceeded expectations. All parties have lowered their expectations for future Fed rate cuts. The cryptocurrency market, gold, and US stocks responded with a drop in prices. BTC quickly plummeted from around $102,000 to $94,000 and has since shown a minor bearish trend over the past two days, reaching a low of $91,000.

To make matters worse, various bearish news emerged. The Ethereum Foundation once again sold 100 ETH. The US Department of Justice was granted permission to sell the seized $6.5 billion worth of Silk Road bitcoins, leaving people wondering if the bull market is still intact.

Trump's inauguration date is set for January 20. This downturn may be a clearing of long leverage positions to relieve excessive speculation and continue the upward trend in a healthier manner. Alternatively, the market may have already priced in expectations of Trump assuming office as US president, entering a phase of distribution. Let's see how traders view this situation.

Macro Analysis School

@Maoshu_CN

The new 30-year bond auction saved US stocks. The focus is currently on the non-farm payroll data's volatility. This auction was for $220 billion, with a bid rate of 4.913%, lower than the post-auction market yield of 4.920%. The bid rate being lower than the market rate indicates that bidders are satisfied with the 4.913% yield. This also means that the short-term long-term bond yield increase has reached a temporary point where it may not significantly rise further. Expectations of a stable or decreasing yield have improved the corporate financing environment and weakened bearish sentiment due to strong market demand. Most importantly, this auction dispelled fears of a continued rise in long-term bond rates. For BTC, the most crucial aspect on Thursday is to stabilize in a sideways pattern, with some turnover, then patiently await Friday's employment data release. With hopes that this week's employment data won't be too negative, otherwise, BTC's price structure may break below the daily range.

@Phyrex_Ni

The current Fed rate cuts are based on both economic and inflation considerations. From an economic perspective, the focus in the short term is more on labor data, not to mention inflation, which is currently within the Fed's expected range. Moreover, in the short term, a decrease in inflation would also require economic cooperation.

The key point is about labor, which Powell has repeatedly emphasized. There are two key points regarding labor: one is the unemployment rate, and the other is wage growth.

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change previous value was 227K, with a market expectation of 160K. Based on this data, a decline in nonfarm employment is highly probable, with the unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged or slightly increase. Therefore, in theory, this is somewhat positive. If the unemployment rate increases but employment also increases, it should be a significant positive. However, if the unemployment rate rises and employment decreases, it indicates a declining trend in the U.S. economy.

Furthermore, this data is completely opposite to Tuesday's Job Openings, as job openings mean that employers have more labor demand, which should reduce the unemployment rate and improve employment data. Therefore, the market expected the economy to perform well, and the Fed to lower or maintain the number of rate cuts.

However, if Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls show an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in employment, it means the Fed will open up more rate cut opportunities. Additionally, it's a bit early to talk about an economic recession now, as the market data is still good. Therefore, if it really happens, it should be a slightly positive event. Of course, if the market insists on interpreting it as an economic recession, there's nothing that can be done. Therefore, no matter how you look at unemployment rate data, an increase in the unemployment rate is associated with economic recession and an increase in the number of rate cuts. A decrease in the unemployment rate is associated with a strong economy, where the number of rate cuts remains unchanged or decreases.

Technical Analysis Enthusiast

@CryptosLaowai

Bitcoin's daily chart currently shows an overly obvious head and shoulders pattern. The news of Silk Road's approval for sale on December 30 at 94k seems to be market manipulation information. The short-term bottom is at 92k, aiming for a breakthrough of the 100k trend line to test 104k bait and switch longs, then the major collapse begins.

@caifuziyou688

The long-term trend is still intact

The short-term trend still adheres to higher lows and higher highs

The overall long trend continues, continue to hold, the current trend belongs to the retest category.

@Xbt886

Last night's drop took out all the low point longs' stop loss, then reclaimed the 7-week VAL position, which is a strong bullish signal.

@Alan416993125

Next week is likely to see the low of this correction, possibly at the yellow circle position. After reaching the yellow circle, there may be a consolidation for 14~28 days to launch an upward momentum attack, with the target expected to be $116,500.

@TheCrowtrades

As mentioned earlier, $94,600 is an important level.

If we manage to stay above it, $100,400 will be the next stop.

Data Analysis Clan

@CryptoPainter_X

The distribution of the current futures market's intense liquidation zone is as shown in the chart. Last night's rapid drop liquidated the long liquidity accumulated two weeks ago. From the liquidation records on the chart, the market is still in a back-and-forth liquidation structure amid a ranging background, following the liquidity wherever it goes. If it weren't for the non-farm payroll data on Friday, I would think the support here is effective, the pullback is in place. However, the question is how the market views the non-farm data and how it reacts, which is completely unpredictable. Therefore, whether there will be a bottoming bounce here or not will depend on tonight's data.

@roger73005305

The Air Force is 8 times that of the Army. The last time this multi-force ratio was at 8.5 was at the end of the 4.9k bottom and the 5.2k second probe. It felt like a clear forceful move to the downside, pushing all retail traders toward the Air Force. During the crash, market makers and whales once again withdrew a large amount of BTC from CEX.

@Felix_Hsu

From the URPD data, early profit-taking chips exiting was the main reason for the price drop. Due to the sharp decline, it intensified the stop-loss of losing chips. However, it can also be seen that there are still many people "buying the dip" between 92,000-94,000. The Binance BTC fund flow chart shows a continued distribution trend. Let's wait for the weekly chart death cross.

Options Market Data

According to Deribit data, $1.8 billion worth of BTC options will expire and settle today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.66 and a max pain point of $97,000. In addition, $460 million worth of ETH options will also expire and settle today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.48 and a max pain point of $3450.

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