Bybit and Black-Scholes Report: Market Data Indicates ETH Rebound Imminent

25-01-17 18:17

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The world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, Bybit, has partnered with Block Scholes to release the latest weekly cryptocurrency derivatives report based on trading volume data. The report provides a fresh outlook on the derivatives market dynamics and future trends on the eve of the Trump inauguration. With no significant news, the overall market has regained momentum, and the spot market has shown stability in the second week of the year.

Data shows that after a lackluster market performance during the winter break, realized volatility has surpassed implied volatility, indicating a significant increase in market activity. Although perpetual contract trading volume has returned to normal levels, market participants seem to still be awaiting more definitive catalyst information related to the crypto market to make more decisive moves.

Key Market Insights:

1. Funding Rate Indicates Long Position Increase: Despite ongoing price fluctuations, perpetual swap funding rates remain in positive territory, signaling continued demand for long positions. While Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are currently leading the market, CRV is showing a stable bullish rate. In contrast, ATOM has dropped 30% from its intra-month high.

2. BTC Options Reflect Long-term Market Optimism: Following the holiday slump, Bitcoin's realized volatility has returned to match the implied level. Although short-term options show increased hedging activity, long-term contract options maintain a bullish bias, with implied volatility staying within the 50 range and a balance in outstanding contracts between call and put options.

3. Volatility Pattern Shifts to Bullish Post-CPI: The recent CPI data has led to a change in Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility smiles, with Bitcoin approaching the $100,000 level, where out-of-the-money (OTM) call options' implied volatility is higher than put options. This marks a reversal of last week's bearish short-term sentiment and highlights the market's high sensitivity to macro factors.

Source: Bybit, Block Scholes

For a detailed analysis of volatility trends, funding rates, and options market dynamics, the report can be downloaded from here.

About Bybit

As the world's second largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, Bybit serves over 60 million users globally. Since its establishment in 2018, Bybit has been committed to building a simpler, more open, and fairer ecosystem, redefining the openness of the decentralized world. We have deep roots in the Web3 space, have formed strategic alliances with top blockchain protocols, provided robust infrastructure, and driven on-chain innovation. With secure asset custody, diverse trading markets, intuitive user experience, and cutting-edge blockchain tools, Bybit has successfully bridged the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance, empowering developers, creators, and enthusiasts to fully unleash the boundless potential of Web3.

Feel free to visit the Bybit website to explore the future of decentralized finance.