Original Article Title: "Bitcoin Price Breaks $87K, When Will Q2 Turning Point Arrive?"
Original Article Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On April 21, Bitcoin broke $87,000, Ethereum reclaimed above $1,600, SOL also rose above $140, and altcoins saw a slight increase. According to Coinglass data, the 24-hour liquidation of open interest across the network reached $220 million, with $142 million in short liquidations.
The global macroeconomy is facing a complex situation under the dual impact of the Federal Reserve's policy and the Trump administration's tariff measures, with both the US stock market and the crypto market under pressure. The Federal Reserve's Powell recently stated that the market's hope for the Fed to intervene to calm the volatility may be misguided. When asked if the Fed would intervene to counter a sharp stock market decline, Fed Chair Powell said, "My answer is no, but I will provide an explanation." With Powell's hawkish remarks, Trump continues to pressure him, and the timing of a rate cut remains uncertain.
Regarding tariffs, Wall Street News reported that Trump hinted in an interview last week that the tit-for-tat tariff escalation between the US and China may be coming to an end. Trump said at the White House regarding tariffs, "I don't want to see tariffs go up further, because at a certain point, people stop buying."
However, given the uncertainty of the final outcome, macro market sentiment has not seen significant improvement. Today, spot gold has already hit a historical high of $3,364 per ounce, while the crypto market remains volatile, entering a period of boredom.
How will the future market unfold? Some key figures in the industry have given their opinions.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske tweeted that he predicts the market may experience another few quarters of growth, followed by everyone turning bearish again. He reminded investors to take profits appropriately when market sentiment is high. Chris Burniske replied to a comment stating that Bitcoin will hit a new high this year.
In a recent summary report, Matrixport stated that to achieve sustained growth in Bitcoin, possible catalysts include:
(1) The Fed releases a dovish signal or cuts interest rates;
(2) Micro-level liquidity growth, such as stablecoin growth and futures leverage increase;
(3) Macro-level liquidity growth, such as money supply growth or government stimulus measures.
Altcoins' significant upward movement requires demand growth being driven by real-world use cases or a surge in liquidity. However, according to tracking indicators, the likelihood of significant liquidity inflows into the crypto market is low.
The founder of Real Vision recently published a chart showing the price of Bitcoin alongside global M2 liquidity, indicating that Bitcoin will also follow the trend of M2's upward movement.
Trader Saint Pump tweeted that Bitcoin shorts have been squeezed during this rally, and now the focus is on $88,000.
The Head of Research at 10x Research, Markus Thielen, believes that Bitcoin may be entering a long consolidation period. In a recent market report, Markus warned that despite many analysts predicting a new all-time high by mid-year, short-term technical signals paint a more cautious picture. Markus pointed out that the Bitcoin oscillator—a technical indicator measuring momentum—suggests that the market characteristics align more with a late-cycle top rather than the beginning of a new bull run.
Data released by Santiment shows that wallets holding from 10 to 10,000 Bitcoins, as key stakeholders in Bitcoin, currently hold 67.77% of this asset, which is the largest by market capitalization in the cryptocurrency market. During the market volatility in April, these wallets continued to accumulate, having accumulated over 53,600 Bitcoins since March 22.
In a recent monthly report, Coinbase's Director of Research, David Duong, predicted that the market could bottom out in the mid-late second quarter of 2025, setting the stage for a third-quarter recovery. Currently, investors are advised to maintain a defensive position towards risk assets.
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, referred to Q1 of this year as the "best worst quarter in crypto history" and highlighted several factors that could drive a market rebound in Q2: increasing global money supply, improving regulatory environment in the U.S., and record-high stablecoin asset management volumes.
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