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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Follow Mel Mattison on Twitter https://x.com/MelMattison1
Mel Mattison’s book https://www.melmattison.com/quoz
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) Mel’s Background
(04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)
(06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market
(11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook
(14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”
(17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)
(24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s
(27:56) VanEck Ad
(28:38) Why Now?
(37:01) Great Depression
(43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues
(48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?
(59:14) Timing: 2027
(01:04:52) Social Security Funding
(01:17:01) Gold and Inflation
(01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Views expressed by James Fishback in this interview are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Jack Farley, Forward Guidance, Blockworks, or any other associated parties.
Although the title “head of macro” plays a central role in this ongoing legal dispute, James Fishback notes in this interview that his complaint also concerns his role in Greenlight’s macro returns during his employment. Recorded the evening of May 22, 2024.
James Fishback vs. Greenlight Capital: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rGPZD1CfIoZE/v0
Greenlight Capital vs. James Fishback:
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r61keEZ5nJ1k/v0
Follow James Fishback on Twitter https://x.com/j_fishback
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(06:08) Job Offer And Title
(12:31) When Did James First Consider Himself To Be The Head of Macro?
(20:21) Greenlight's Two Loans To Fishback (Totaling $337,346.12 Before Accrued Interest, Totaling $345,698.65 After Accrued Interest)
(23:48) Van Eck Ad
(24:28) How To Define "Running Macro Investing"
(31:04) Written Evidence Of Greenlight Employees Referring To James As The "Head Of Macro"
(50:15) James Considers David Einhorn's "Tweet Heard Round The World" an "Insult" And "A Lie"
(56:52) Fishback: "I've Always Had The Itch To Be Entrepreneurial"
(58:04) James' Resignation From Greenlight In Early August 2023
(01:02:23) Fishback: A Billionaire Demanding That A Public University Take Down Content From A Student Organization Is A "Flagrant Violation Of The First Amendment"
(01:03:23) Political Differences Between James Fishback And David Einhorn
(01:10:17) James Fishback's Market Views: The Fed's "Lemonhead Problem"
(01:14:07) Fishback: Fixed-Rate Liabilities And Floating-Rate Assets Means Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Have Actually Been Net Stimulative
(01:19:17) Higher For Longer
(01:27:05) Why James Thinks Donald Trump Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election
(01:35:08) James' Bullish View On USD / JPY (Taking Advantage of Forward Curve)
(01:42:12) Fishback's View Of U.S. Stock Market, AI, And Microsoft
(01:46:37) Options & Path Dependency
(01:48:29) View On Long-Term Bonds (Duration)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
