This week we discuss how to think about managing risk, whether inflation fears are overpriced, and embracing the market rotation. We also delve into the shift in global collateral, the power of volatility, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_GFJHScbL7EHAXDmO9Xy-QFt8fgNWGP1/view?usp=sharing

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

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SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:14) MicroStrategy/Bitcoin Craze

(06:26) Risk Management Strategies

(17:30) Are Inflation Fears Overpriced?

(25:48) Ads

(27:32) Volatility Seasonality

(30:11) The Bullish Market Rotation

(40:35) Shift In Global Collateral

(52:21) Volatility Is Vitality

(56:36) Cyclicality, Liquidity, & Debasement

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the Fed’s cutting path, Powell’s speech, and managing crypto market euphoria. We also delve into whether we’ve seen the peak in the dollar and yields, the factors driving the Fed, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15P0IaQJQajBm35qCu4e564YWueVRbV5B/view?usp=sharing

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:37) Revisiting View Of The Economy

(03:42) Fed Cuts & Powell Speech

(09:55) Peak In Dollar & Yields

(13:38) Government Spending & DOGE

(19:02) China, Japan, & The Dollar

(22:23) Small Caps Vs Large Caps

(24:56) Ads

(26:29) Managing Crypto Euphoria

(33:24) Bullish Market Signals

(37:41) Stifling Volatility

(40:41) Tactical Outlook For Bitcoin

(43:35) Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook

(48:16) Inflation & Potential For Recession

(53:34) Differentiating Assets

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran

Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:27) Stephen's Background

(02:34) Context Behind The Paper

(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade

(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency

(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining

(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs

(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs

(25:37) Currency Offsetting

(32:25) Ads

(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies

(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs

(49:18) Dollar Devaluation

(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury

(01:01:46) The Big Picture

(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets

(01:06:43) Closing Remarks

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and the implications of an absent Fed. We also delve into fiscal driving nominal GDP, and the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist

(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift

(14:14) Forward Guidance

(15:54) Summarizing George's Position

(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds

(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy

(33:28) Ads

(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)

(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?

(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed

(49:51) What Stage Are We In?

(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate

(01:01:23) Economic Outlook

(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the impact of the election, the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the post-election trading themes. We also delve into shorting gold, Bitcoin’s all-time high, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GXSr4CfY6aBPYd0z5UqZCIco0MBmMaVb/view?usp=sharing

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:27 Election Outcome

04:43 The Shift In Media & Polling

09:09 Unity Or More Fracturing?

15:53 Market Impact Of Election

23:04 Ads

24:18 Market Impact Of Election (Continued)

25:35 Offsides Hedging

30:40 Powell & The Fed

36:37 December FOMC Meeting

40:47 2025 Themes To Watch

44:39 Short Gold?

46:46 Crypto & Bitcoin All-Time Highs

52:19 New Market Regime

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Bob Elliot joins the show to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, the ongoing "over easy" monetary policy, and the election’s impact on the Fed and markets. We also delve into the labor market, fiscal deficits, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) FOMC Takeaways

(02:48) Is Policy Restrictive?

(07:20) Are Cuts Fairly Priced?

(09:54) Cuts Are Coming No Matter What

(12:39) Over Easy Monetary Policy

(15:40) Quantitative Tightening

(18:24) What The Fed SHOULD Do

(22:20) Ledger Ad

(23:05) The Labor Market

(26:33) Election Impact On The Fed

(31:40) Can The Fed Tame Inflation?

(35:22) Fiscal Deficits

(42:51) Asset Allocation

(44:42) Credit Spreads

(46:39) Foreign Markets & Monetary Policy

(49:58) F*ck Valuations

(52:11) Follow Bob's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Cem Karsan: https://x.com/jam_croissant

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations

(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election

(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact

(27:52) Ledger Ad

(28:37) How Will The Fed React?

(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar

(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure

(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect

(52:06) Market Outlook

(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the latest NFP report, the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and whether the Trump trade is unwinding. We also delve into the moves in yields, MicroStrategy, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

--

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6tgjtMhnVnGc9PLqwxAMd3TB2Gmx0Qu/view?usp=sharing

—

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:47) NFP Report Takeaways

(14:50) Quant Corner

(24:31) Ledger Ad

(25:16) Is The Trump Trade Unwinding?

(37:31) QRA

(48:16) Microstrategy: The Big Long

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jurrien Timmer joins the show to discuss where we are in the current bull market, the push & pull between earnings and valuations, and the various influences on interest rates. We also delve into when the US debt level becomes a real problem, monetary hedges, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Jurrien: https://x.com/TimmerFidelity

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Where Are We in the Bull Market?

(04:22) Is this Bull Market Unique?

(07:07) Economic Resilience to Short Rates

(09:12) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity

(12:39) Election Impact on Markets

(15:54) Unpacking the Move in Yields

(22:20) Outlook for Risk Assets

(26:39) Earnings vs Valuation

(34:52) Ledger Ad

(35:37) Did We Achieve A Soft Landing?

(37:32) Inflation Reacceleration Risk

(42:02) Gold, Bitcoin & Monetary Hedges

(45:40) Path To Negative Real Rates

(49:07) When Does The US Level Debt Actually Matter?

(56:42) Learn More About Jurrien

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.

Buy now on Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:33) Path of Interest Rates

(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?

(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves

(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility

(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging

(20:29) Election Probability Distribution

(27:17) Ledger Ad

(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates

(31:10) Inflation Resurgence

(33:18) Global Coordination

(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade

(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency

(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market

(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.