In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy!
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:06) Key Market Narratives
(04:03) Trump's Economic Vision
(13:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(14:39) Trump's Economic Vision (Con't)
(16:02) Technical vs. Actual Recession
(20:02) Credit Cycle and Market Positioning
(25:13) Market Pricing for Recession
(30:15) Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts
(32:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(33:54) Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE
(37:26) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing
(43:50) Portfolio Construction and Risk Management
(47:34) KISS Portfolio System
(52:29) Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what’s going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cAWJKncxGgliZa54aTq08eCgn9Q-P8x1/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) PMLS IV
(02:02) Navigating This Insane Market
(07:32) Key Market Drivers
(12:22) Ondo Ad
(12:48) China & Tariffs
(16:31) US Spending Problem
(20:33) Bond Market
(24:12) The Fed & Inflation
(29:40) Powell, Bessent & Fiscal
(32:39) Ondo Ad
(33:10) Navigating A Volatile Market
(38:55) Secretary Bessent Running Point
(42:50) Alternative Trade Restructuring Strategies
(48:59) Unpacking the Bond Market Put
(52:47) BTC ATHs in 2025
(56:02) Market Tailwinds
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.