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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook
(04:59) Bank of America
(12:54) VanEck Ad
(15:39) Charles Schwab
(20:27) Credit Cards and Auto
(27:21) Permissionless Ad
(28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
(35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks
(40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up
(44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity
(47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers
(56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected
(01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System?
(01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out
(01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf
Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944
Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown
Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel
Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)?
(08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance"
(20:52) VanEck Ad
(24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing")
(29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic
(33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns?
(45:43) Permissionless Ad
(46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment?
(59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration?
(01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets"
(01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too
(01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.