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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos
Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817
Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:35) VanEck Ad
(13:14) Interview Continues
(19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September?
(24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market?
(25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market
(31:41) The Housing Market
(36:41) Permissionless Ad
(37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign"
(47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates
(50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President?
(54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another
(57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed)
(01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its September meeting. The Fed Funds pricing changed throughout our interview and Jack references that in the conversation.
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Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://x.com/profplum99
Mike Green’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
YouTube video on Canadian market bubble and Nortel Networks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6xwMIUPHss&t=2219s&ab_channel=BobbyBroccoli
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) Stock Market Pukes In Reaction To Horrible Jobs Report
(05:45) Is The U.S. In A Recession Now?
(06:01) How Passive Investing Has Driven The Stock Market Higher
(28:35) VanEck Ad
(29:15) Passive Flows In The Context Of Other Market Forces
(32:25) Has Passive Investing Boosted Valuations of The Biggest Companies?
(42:25) Will The Same Passive Forces That Boosted The Market Higher Work In Reverse Now That The Market Is Declining?
(48:40) Permissionless Ad
(49:39) If Passive Is A Bubble, It Can Get A Whole Lot Bigger
(53:16) SPAC Flows Are No More
(01:16:52) Soros-like Reflexivity of High Stock Prices
(01:18:49) Mike's Views On Ongoing "Market Hiccup"
(01:34:00) Mike's Closing Thoughts on Private Credit
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
