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This interview was recorded on a drive down from Leen’s Lodge in rural Maine, as Talmon and Jack returned from “Camp Kotok,” the renowned retreat for prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, and financial journalists. Talmon and Jack talk about the cooling labor market, modern monetary theory (MMT), private credit, and more.
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Follow Talmon Smith on Twitter https://x.com/talmonsmith
Latest articles by Talmon Smith for The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/by/talmon-joseph-smith
About Camp Kotok https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok
Leen’s Lodge: https://leenslodge.com/
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:33) The Soft Landing Is In View
(08:28) Companies Actually Do Pay Attention To Interest Rates When Hiring, Believe It Or Not
(17:26) Jack & Tal Rant About The Virtues Of A Flexible Centralized Currency
(18:53) Permissionless Ad
(19:51) Interview Continues
(26:42) The Sahm Rule Was Created To Inspire Action In Order to Prove Itself Wrong
(37:00) Outside of Banking Crisis of 2023, The Fed's "Pain" Has Yet To Show Itself
(42:37) The Treasury Market: How Much Does Supply Affect Yields?
(49:48) Modern Monetary Theory: Who Really Prints The Money?
(01:27:10) Jack's Personal Thoughts On Private Credit
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at VanEck, joins to share her views on how to value gold stocks such as gold miners and gold royalty companies. Casanova argues that with the recent run up in gold, gold stocks could be undervalued and are poised to deliver strong results and returns. This interview is a Fireside Chat and paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck Associates Corporation.
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Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Imaru Casanova on VanEck website: https://www.vaneck.com.au/news-and-insights/thought-leaders/imaru-casanova/
Casanova’s latest piece on Gold Miners: https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/ima-casanova-miners-margins-grow-as-gold-soars-to-fresh-highs/
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:24) The New Bull Market In Gold
(06:32) Investing In Gold Companies
(09:14) How To Value A Gold Company
(16:38) Cash Flow vs. Earnings?
(19:25) Gold Miners Are ~20% Discounted Relative To Gold Prices
(22:51) Specific Gold Mining Stocks
(25:36) Managing Jurisdictional Risk
(36:54) Thinking About Depreciation
(40:04) Common Mistakes When Analyzing Gold Companies
(44:38) Gold Royalty Companies
(52:06) Greenfield vs. Brownfield Projects
(58:32) Closing Thoughts on Gold Miners
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
