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This interview with Brett Jefferson discusses trust preferred CDOs, why they can provide such great opportunities, and how Brett’s fund capitalizes on this niche market. Brett and Jack also discuss the private credit market, the risks and benefits of securitization, the performance of the collateralized loan market, and much more. Recorded on September 10, 2024.
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Follow the new host of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin https://x.com/fejau_inc
Jack’s upcoming podcast, Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:59) Trust Preferred CDOs
(08:44) Starting Hildene Capital Management
(10:44) Buying Trust Preferred CDOs
(13:22) Deferred Payments
(20:13) Trust Preferreds Regulated Out
(23:15) Philadelphia Fed Paper
(27:38) Taking Advantage Of Inefficient Markets
(34:33) Private Credit
(37:55) Hildene's Market Niche
(44:11) The Structured Credit Market
(51:44) Structured Security Correlations
(55:20) Credit Market Risks
(01:00:00) The Realities Of Private Credit
(01:08:27) TruPS CDOs
(01:11:03) Private Credit CLO Market
(01:14:48) Risks & Rewards
(01:18:58) Collateralized Loan Market Performance
(01:25:28) Closing
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Important news: this will be Jack’s last episode as the host of Forward Guidance. He is transitioning to host a new podcast called Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters
Felix Jauvin, macro trader and current host of “On The Margin,” will be the new host of Forward Guidance going forward: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Richard Koo, senior adviser at CSIS, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, and pioneer of the “balance sheet recession” phenomenon, explains why he thinks China’s balance sheet recession has already begun.
Richard Koo’s latest book, “Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies”: https://www.amazon.com/Pursued-Economy-Understanding-Overcoming-Challenging/dp/1119984270
Richard Koo’s classic book, “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japan's Great Recession”: https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) What Is A Balance Sheet Recession?
(08:56) Balance Sheet Recession In Europe & U.S. After The Great Financial Crisis of 2008
(15:46) China's Balance Sheet Recession
(25:43) Savings And Bank Credit In China
(33:26) Permissionless Ad
(34:25) China's Trade Surplus
(38:20) China Likely Can't Export Its Way Out Of Its Balance Sheet Recession Because The Rest of the World Won't Let It
(45:33) The Currency Adjustment Mechanism To Correct Trade Imbalances Has Been Severely Impaired, Argues Koo
(01:01:58) Is The U.S. in a Balance Sheet Expansion?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
