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This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Darius Dale: https://x.com/DariusDale42
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:41) Overview of the Economy
(02:42) Recession vs Normalization
(05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut
(10:17) Are We Price For Recession?
(12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts
(19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong
(25:49) The Fiscal Impulse
(28:55) Trend of US Growth
(31:02) Permissionless Ad
(31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials
(40:31) Chinese Economy
(44:32) Asset Allocation
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
This week we discuss the Fed decision & economic projections, the bullish market signals, and the reasoning behind recession calls. We also delve into the trajectory of the economy and cutting cycle, private credit markets, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Jack: https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters: https://www.youtube.com/@Monetary-Matters
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/195AL7oEaAkimijE0XSnagP8vwzeDat4N/view?usp=drive_link
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:14) FOMC Victory Lap
(03:38) Quinn's Framework
(06:11) Bullish Rate Cut?
(09:30) Summary of Economic Projections
(14:32) Bullish Market Signals
(18:05) The World Trade
(21:09) Trajectory of the Cutting Cycle
(24:30) Market Sentiment & Credit Risk
(27:50) Private Credit
(29:55) Sovereign Debt Crowding Out Private Debt
(31:43) Permissionless Ad
(32:23) Fiscal Super Cycle
(34:09) Energy, Commodities, & AI
(37:13) Economic Expectations
(39:50) Reconciling Recession Calls
(44:35) The Market Gives Something for Everyone
(50:38) Oil Market & Liquidity
(53:32) The Banana Zone
(58:58) Monetary Matters
(01:01:09) Balancing Market Views
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
