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In this episode, George Robertson joins the show to discuss why he thinks there is no monetary policy, the changing reaction function of the Fed, and the implications of an absent Fed. We also delve into fiscal driving nominal GDP, and the real risk-free rate, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow George Robertson: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:11) The Fed Doesn't Exist
(06:58) Neo Wicksell Policy Shift
(14:14) Forward Guidance
(15:54) Summarizing George's Position
(17:50) Normalizing Fed Funds
(21:03) There Is No Monetary Policy
(33:28) Ads
(35:00) There Is No Monetary Policy (Continued)
(37:18) What Is Driving The Economy?
(45:09) Implications Of An Absent Fed
(49:51) What Stage Are We In?
(53:01) The Real Risk-Free Rate
(01:01:23) Economic Outlook
(01:06:10) Learn More About George's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode, Stephen Miran joins the show to discuss Trump’s economic policies, the current economic imbalances in global trade, and the economics of tariffs. We also delve into how currency moves can offset tariffs, a potential Mar-a-Lago Accord to weaken the dollar, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Stephan Miran: https://x.com/SteveMiran
Stephan’s New Paper: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/our_research
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:27) Stephen's Background
(02:34) Context Behind The Paper
(04:51) Economic Imbalances In Global Trade
(09:15) Consequences Of Having The Reserve Currency
(11:26) Consequences Of US Share Of Global GDP Declining
(14:21) Financial Extraterritoriality & Tariffs
(17:28) Economics Of Tariffs
(25:37) Currency Offsetting
(32:25) Ads
(33:58) Trump's Economic Policies
(45:46) Varied Application Of Tariffs
(49:18) Dollar Devaluation
(55:35) The Role Of The Fed & Treasury
(01:01:46) The Big Picture
(01:03:43) Trump's Impact On Markets
(01:06:43) Closing Remarks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
