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This week we discuss the November jobs report, the Fed’s cutting path, and the goldilocks scenario for 2025. We also delve into the different R* models, MicroStrategy, the Milken moment for crypto, and much more. Enjoy!
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TxUrZZsIWtXdqbDS-DDJL7EduaP_pdpE/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
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SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:44) Post-Thanksgiving Catch Up
(03:33) November Non-Farm Payrolls
(08:31) Economic Slowdown or Stability?
(10:20) Debating The Fed’s Cutting Path
(16:51) Hot Economy Vs Growth Scare
(24:24) Macro Analysis & Shorting Oil
(30:35) Ads
(32:38) We Are In Goldilocks
(36:29) Stocks Vs Commodities
(38:12) Inflation Turning Point
(39:40) Different R* Models
(46:07) History Of Junk Bonds
(48:11) Milken Moment For Crypto
(52:11) Monetizing Volatility
(53:26) Bitcoin & Evolving Options Market
(56:40) MicroStrategy Risks
(01:03:23) Enhancing Yield With Volatility
(01:06:13) Debating Bitcoin’s Future
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode, Warren Mosler joins the show to discuss the counterintuitive impact of that Federal Funds rate, the impact of government spending, and the economics of trade and tariffs. We also delve into the shifting duration of US debt, whether deficits matter, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Warren Mosler: https://x.com/wbmosler
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:41) Warren’s Macro Overview
(06:19) Understanding The Neutral Rate
(14:16) Fed Funds & Inflation
(21:14) Rate Cuts Are Cooling Inflation
(22:54) Ads
(25:02) Rate Hikes Are Stimulative
(27:32) Deficit Spending Is Money Printing
(28:27) Taxes & Government Spending
(31:56) The Effect Of Monetary Acronyms
(34:29) The K-Shaped Economy
(37:29) Zero Rate & Asset Bubbles
(39:05) Politics & The Oil Market
(41:29) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs
(49:41) Taxes, Unemployment, & Financing More Stuff
(56:38) Does The Deficit Matter?
(58:42) Impact Of Shifting Debt Duration
(01:01:14) The Bid For Duration
(01:04:57) Warren’s Trading
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
