This week we discuss whether the Fed made the right decision, the post-FOMC volatility spike, and the China risk to markets. We also delve into the labor market, the 1998 framework for today’s economy, 2025 expectations, and much more. Enjoy!
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DPQNetklHAXhw6bAJwRkD0qjeuE0klyk/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
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Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(03:03) Why The Fed Did The Right Thing
(06:36) Is Inflation Rolling Over?
(12:01) Trump Policy Impact
(14:16) Explaining The Volatility Spike
(20:02) 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook
(22:02) Mapping The Market Rotation
(27:43) VIX & Market Positioning
(31:46) China Risk
(33:42) Ads
(35:36) Systematic Volatility
(37:50) China Structural Issues & Stimulus
(39:54) Bond Yields Vs Equities
(43:31) 2025 Rate Cutting Path
(46:54) Labor Market & Supply Shocks
(51:04) Economic Optimism & Lending
(52:35) Growth & Oil Outlook
(54:58) Bessent Economic Plan
(57:15) 1998 Framework
(59:55) Productive Capacity Boom
(01:03:04) End-Of-Year Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this special crossover episode with On the Margin, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling
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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
GlobalStake delivers institutional-grade staking with self-owned, SOC2-certified bare-metal infrastructure, carbon-negative operations, and comprehensive security. Enjoy competitive pricing, decentralized operations, and slashing insurance backed by top-rated carriers. Learn more at globalstake.io
Meet Kraken Institutional. Whether you're an asset allocator, a trading firm or high net worth individual, Kraken Institutional unlocks the powerful tools you and your organization need to trade and manage crypto — at scale. Reliable, easy to integrate, with white-glove service and 24/7 support. Get in touch today at https://blckwrks.co/Kraken
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:20) Macro Outlook
(07:14) Philosophical Vibe Shift
(12:39) Financial Nihilism
(16:40) Unpacking The Next Administration
(20:11) Misaligned Incentives
(23:23) Ads
(25:24) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
(38:15) BSR & The US Dollar
(47:06) Crypto Market Outlook
(50:04) Crypto Product Market Fit
(55:18) Fundamentals Bearish?
(57:07) Learn More About Travis’ Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.