On the morning of November 6th, Beijing time, the preliminary results of the 2024 US election will be determined. This election has attracted particular attention, not only because the two candidates have remarkable backgrounds and campaign journeys, but also because it is an election that is superimposed with major political and economic changes and turmoil in the United States and even around the world.

During the countdown to the election, BlockBeats will update the latest election data in real time and sort out key hot news to help readers better follow and understand the dynamics of the election.

Real-time data

Road to 270 votes

According to current statistics, Harris has basically locked up 226 electoral votes, while Trump is temporarily behind with 219 votes. In order to ultimately win the election, Harris needs to win another 44 electoral votes, while Trump needs to win another 51 votes.

Latest poll data

Vice President Harris's overtaking trend in the latest poll data has further strengthened. She leads Trump by 51:47 and 51:49 respectively in the poll data of media platforms such as PBS News Marist and Forbes News HarrisX, while the two are still tied at 49:49 on platforms such as NBC News and the New York Post. The development of the situation still needs to be further observed today.

Situation in key swing states

In this election, eight swing states including Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin will have a key or even decisive impact on the final election results, and are regarded as the decisive battlefield between Harris and Trump. Yesterday morning, many mainstream media reported that Harris unexpectedly overtook Trump in Iowa and was the first to win a swing state.

Currently, Harris' lead in Wisconsin has further expanded, from 0.3 to 0.4, while the lead in Michigan has dropped from 0.9 to 0.6. On the other hand, Trump's lead in the remaining five states has declined except for Arizona and Nevada.

Prediction Market Data Comparison

In this election, the data given by various prediction markets for the election results further diverged today. Currently, Polymarket data shows that Trump's winning rate has risen from 57.9% yesterday to 58.5%, while RealClear Polling's average result based on various poll data shows that Trump's lead over Harris has dropped from 0.3 yesterday to 0.1.

Latest News

11-05 08:47

Harris's final message to supporters: Enjoy the election

According to CNN, with less than a day to go before the election, Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania, trying to show a united vision. "What you have to do today, and what you have been doing, is for us to enjoy it," said Harris's canvassers.

In one of the events, Harris once again avoided saying the name of her Republican opponent, instead calling Trump "the other guy." "I'm very different from this other person, and that's something everyone knows, and that's why you're here to help us get votes," Harris said. The divisions in contemporary American politics "make people feel lonely," Harris said.

"So I've been thinking about our campaign over the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we canvass, let's be intentional about building communities, building alliances, reminding people that we all have more in common than what separates us from each other." (Jin Shi)

11-05 08:45

Trump will speak in Pittsburgh, targeting voters concerned about inflation and immigration

Former U.S. President Trump will take the stage in Pittsburgh soon to deliver a closing campaign speech to voters, aiming to make a final statement, saying that only he can improve the lives of Americans.

According to excerpts from his speech provided by the Trump campaign, he is expected to speak directly to voters, saying they are suffering from soaring inflation and are tired of "war and chaos abroad and devastating invasions on our southern border." (Jinshi)

11-05 08:36

75 million people have voted in advance in the US election, and the Republican Party is trying to increase participation to counter the Democratic Party

As of November 3, 75 million voters across the United States have voted by voting in advance or by mailing in ballots, according to multiple US media reports. This is almost half of all the votes cast in the 2020 US election.

Among voters who have voted early this year, 37.9% are registered as Democrats and 36.2% are registered as Republicans, with both sides evenly matched.

Four years ago, a total of 155 million American voters voted in the general election. The early voting schedule varies from state to state and region to region, and so far in at least nine states, more than half of eligible voters have voted early.

11-05 08:26

Musk's "million-dollar lottery" event is allowed to continue

Ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, Musk's campaign to give away millions of dollars a day to voters escaped a legal challenge from the Philadelphia district attorney because a Pennsylvania judge refused to block the move. Pennsylvania is a key swing state.

A Pennsylvania judge rejected a request by a local prosecutor to stop the contest, which he called an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyers said at a hearing that the winners of the contest were not picked at random.

The winners were chosen based on whether they were "suitable" to be public spokespersons for Musk's political action committee, often based on their personal stories. The judge ruled shortly afterwards, without any arguments. (Jinshi)

11-05 08:23

Trump Media Technology Group's U.S. stocks rose 8% after the market and closed up more than 12% overnight

BlockBeats reported that on November 5, Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.O) rose 8% in after-hours trading. The stock closed up more than 12% overnight. (Jinshi)

11-05 08:12

Polymarket's Trump's chances of winning the election have risen to 58.5%, leading Harris by more than 17 percentage points

On the Polymarket platform, Trump's chances of winning the election have risen to 58.5%, while Harris's chances of winning the election have dropped to 41.4%, now leading Harris by more than 17 percentage points.

11-05 01:12

A Polymarket user sold $3.15 million betting on Trump's victory in the past hour

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Polymarket whale user "larpas" is selling all his positions betting on Trump's victory in the US election. In the past hour, he has sold positions worth about $3.15 million.

Interestingly, just 20 hours ago, the whale withdrew $500,000 USDC from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. Just 20 hours later, he regretted it and is selling all his positions.

11-05 00:31

JPMorgan Chase: If Trump wins the election, the Fed may suspend its easing cycle as early as December

David Kelly, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase, said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, "If Trump wins the election, then he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, the deficit will expand, and interest rates will rise."

Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in Friday's interest rate decision, even if the election is held before then. (Jinshi)

11-04 22:23

Robert Kennedy Jr. canvasses for Trump

Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on social media, "Vote for Trump. No matter which state you live in, don't vote for me. Let's send President Trump back to the White House and send me to Washington so that we can make America healthy again, end endless wars, and protect our civil liberties."

11-04 22:10

Billionaire Mark Cuban canvasses for Harris

Billionaire Mark Cuban Cuban posted on social media, "Join me in the largest phone campaign to help Kamala Harris be elected as the next President of the United States. The "All for Kamala" campaign will start at 10 am Eastern Time on Election Day."

11-04 21:55

A Polymarket user spent $14.13 million betting on Trump's victory

The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has increased its position by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours. The address has spent a total of $14.13 million betting on Trump's victory.

11-04 21:26

Trump and Harris will both go to Pittsburgh to hold a rally on the last day before the election

Kamala Harris will visit Pennsylvania on the 4th local time. She will start in Scranton and conduct a mobilization event, and then go to Yartown and Reading, which have large Puerto Rican communities, where she will attend a rally with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Next, she will go to Pittsburgh for a rally, where she will attend with her second husband Doug Emhoff. Harris and Emhoff will then go to Philadelphia, where she will make a final pitch to voters in Pennsylvania.

11-04 20:38

CNBC: Trump plans to hold rallies in three key states on the last day before the election

Trump will divide his time between three key states on the last day before the election.

According to the Trump campaign, rallies are planned in Raleigh, North Carolina, Reading, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, Michigan, and Grand Rapids.

Grand Rapids holds a unique place in Trump’s campaign history: As Michigan’s second-largest city, it was Trump’s last stop on election eve in his two previous presidential campaigns.

11-04 20:12

JP Morgan estimates Trump’s chances of winning at 60-70%

JP Morgan estimates Trump’s chances of winning at 60-70% and predicts the dollar will rise by 5% if a Republican wins the election and 1.5-2% if Congress is split.

11-04 16:16

Analyst: The market should remain cautious amid uncertainty in the US election

Michael D Zezas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that the main goal of investors during the US election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations.

He said that the increase in the probability of a Republican victory implied by the forecast market has led some people to expect that the election will produce a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes that this is possible, but not the most likely scenario.

Neither candidate appears to be the clear favorite to win the Electoral College, so a repeat of the prolonged vote counting seen in 2020 is possible. Morgan Stanley is putting less weight on early voting data given its poor past performance and advises against over-interpreting short-term market moves. The firm said short-term market reactions to elections tend to be noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends.

11-04 15:16

Latest Updates on US Presidential Election: Polls Show Harris Leading in Early Voting

With less than 48 hours until the US election and more than 77.6 million votes cast, new polls show Harris leading in early voting in key states. The Democratic candidate leads by 8% among voters who have already voted, while rival Trump has an advantage among voters who are "very likely to vote but have not yet voted."

Harris has a slight lead in three swing states, while Trump leads in one and three others are too close, according to polls from The New York Times and Siena College.

With just hours left on the campaign trail, Harris spoke in Michigan while Republican rival Trump complained at a Pennsylvania rally about gaps in his bulletproof shield and suggested he wouldn’t mind journalists being shot in the event of an assassination attempt.

11-04 12:56

This week's US election is superimposed on the interest rate meeting, and traders suggest that cash is king

On November 4, due to the concentration of major events this week, the US election is superimposed on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Most traders believe that this week will be volatile and may be violent, because there is a high probability of a controversial result in the election, which will drag the counting of votes for weeks or even months.

At the same time, hedge funds are betting on greater price fluctuations. Data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this month showed that large speculators turned to net long VIX futures for the first time since January 2019.

Several senior Wall Street traders suggest that cash is king. Among them, Robert Schein, chief investment officer of Blanke Schein Wealth Management, said he has increased his holdings in cash equivalents to 10% from the usual 5%. His strategy is to be ready to snap up assets when the results inevitably trigger volatility in at least some markets.

Wealth Alliance President and Managing Director Eric Diton said in an interview: "We will not make any positioning for the election results because it is equivalent to flipping a coin. There is no point in betting."

11-04 12:39

The S&P 500 index trend and the record of correlation with the election results indicate that Harris may win the election

Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 index (SPX) is higher in the three months before the election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% probability of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index is lower in the three months before the election, the probability of the other party candidate winning is 89%.

It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators said Harris would have a good chance of winning if the S&P 500 had not erased 8% of its gains since August in one day.

At the same time, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the above historical experience.

11-04 12:17

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the US dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week

On November 4, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the US dollar in early trading due to possible position adjustments before the US presidential election on Tuesday. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) global economic and market research team said in a report that the US dollar "is likely to trade in a wide range this week" due to the election. The team said that if Trump leads in the early count of in-person voting, the US dollar may climb. However, Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail or in person in advance, and those ballots take longer to count.

As a result, the team said Trump's lead could shrink or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the dollar could depreciate by 1%-2% this week.

11-04 11:05

4E: The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates this week, the "Trump deal" is reversed, and election uncertainty is increasing

The October U.S. non-farm payrolls data was far below expectations. Excluding the distortion of data caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is also gradually cooling down.

At the same time, the results of the U.S. election are about to be announced, and Trump's chances of winning have unexpectedly weakened. The reversal of the "Trump deal" has added more uncertainty to the election. According to 4E monitoring, the financial reports of major technology giants were released last week. Although Apple's financial report was disappointing on Friday, the weak U.S. non-farm payrolls in October boosted expectations of interest rate cuts. In addition, Amazon and Intel, which had favorable financial reports, boosted optimism in technology stocks. The Nasdaq closed up 0.8%.

But on a weekly basis, U.S. stocks fell all week. The Nasdaq bid farewell to the previous seven-week winning streak and fell 1.5% for the whole week, the S&P fell 1.4%, and the Dow fell 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening of the "Trump deal". After approaching a record high at the end of the month, risk aversion has heated up. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,885, up 0.25%, and the 7-day gain closed down to 1.8%.

11-04 10:35

JPMorgan Chase: Trump's victory may prompt the Fed to suspend interest rate cuts as early as December

David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its easing cycle as early as December. Because Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling.

Kelly pointed out that if the Republicans win a big victory in Trump's victory, there will be more expansionary fiscal policies, which may trigger trade wars and expand deficits, leading to higher interest rates.

On the other hand, Kelly said that if Vice President Harris wins, the economy may continue its soft landing trajectory. In this case, the Fed may stick to its expected loose policy path.

11-04 09:12

Analyst: BTC volatility is expected to be plus or minus 9 percentage points on election night, but the market still tends to be bullish

According to analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged overnight, with Bitcoin's volatility currently at 80.30%, up from 72.20% previously, and Ethereum's volatility currently at 82.92%, up from 75.40% previously.

Nick Forster said that this escalation reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, which may greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds probability that election night will lead to large price fluctuations. BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, and ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%.

Nick Forster added that BTC's total open interest in call options is 1,179, while the total open interest in put options is 885, which clearly shows that despite the potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.

11-04 08:52

Des Moines Register Poll: Trump's support in the "light red state" Iowa was reversed by Harris

According to analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH soared overnight. Bitcoin's volatility is currently 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and Ethereum's volatility is currently 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%.

Nick Forster said that this upgrade reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, which may greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds probability that election night will cause large price fluctuations. BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, and ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%.

Nick Forster added that BTC's total open interest in call options is 1,179, while the total open interest in put options is 885, which clearly shows that despite the potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.

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