$75,000, Bitcoin hits a new high this year, Trump leads by a large margin, funds are no longer divided

With Trump leading in the vote count in key swing states, the price of Bitcoin hit $75,000, breaking the all-time high for the second time this year. It turns out that Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset in the US election.

On October 29, after stumbling for three months, Bitcoin finally stood at $70,000 again. 70,000 seems to be a key integer, which is not only the peak of the bull market in 2021, but also the psychological integer for many people to judge whether to get on the train. Bitcoin's first historical high this year was $73,777 in March this year, thanks to the boost of ETFs; and the second new high made the community joke, "Let's elect the president every day in the future."

GSR Research Analyst Toe Bautista said that from the perspective of altcoins, many project parties have been waiting for the opportunity to observe the issuance of other tokens and the results of the election. He also believes that if macro conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin prices may rise further. "It is easy to foresee that Bitcoin will rise to $80,000, whether it is Q1 next year or the end of the month."

Election expectations are about to land

The final result of the US presidential election will also be decided a few hours after Bitcoin breaks through its all-time high, and Trump is currently in the lead.

Related reading: "The most critical day of the election is stalemate｜A look at real-time data and information of the US election"

The cycle of the US election and the cycle of Bitcoin are so closely aligned that they were only perceived by the currency circle this year. Trump is unexpectedly friendly to Crypto and Bitcoin, and half of the industry is excited and half is afraid. Whether it is speaking at the Bitcoin conference or launching his own DeFi product, his declaration of "making Bitcoin a strategic reserve for the United States" has made the overall market recognize Trump's victory, which is a great boon to the cryptocurrency community.

Bitfinex analysts said, "The narrative of the 'Trump deal' and favorable fourth-quarter seasonality have created a perfect storm for Bitcoin, and although prices may fluctuate before the election, there will still be an exciting period ahead." The options market also reflects the optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, with call options positioning that the price of Bitcoin, the largest digital asset by market value, could rise to more than $80,000 by the end of the year.

ETF Inflows

ETFs attracted much attention at the beginning of their launch, mainly because of the influx of a large amount of new funds, and the price of Bitcoin also created a new history. However, the total funds of ETFs soon began to flow out, and the market sentiment began to decline.

Rhythm BlockBeats has been recording the inflow of ETFs. The data chart can intuitively see that August 8 was the lowest point of the stage, and funds have been net inflows in the past few months.

Interest Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, which was much higher than expected, and Bitcoin also responded to the pull. Now the expectation for November is a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which is generally understood by the market as a positive factor. After all, the starting point of the last bull market was the interest rate cut in March 2020.

November historical data

In addition to the data, there is also a sense of ritual.

According to Coinglass data, after the halving of Bitcoin in 2012, 2016 and 2020, the investment returns in the fourth quarter performed well, at 97.7%, 58.17% and 168.02% respectively. Among them, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and the return rate in November 2020 was 42.95%. The return rate this month is still worth looking forward to.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin closed up 7.35% in September this year, setting a record for the best performance in history. Historically, every time Bitcoin closed up in September, it would rise to the end of the year.

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