Original Title: "Focus on U.S. Treasury Secretary Nomination, Can the Crypto Industry Welcome a New Ally?"

Original Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

As the end of U.S. President Trump's first term approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have gradually come to light in the past few days, but the battle for the position of Treasury Secretary has become increasingly intense.

According to current market expectations, the nomination of the new Treasury Secretary could be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a final decision on the candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought advice from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one other BlackRock executive; in addition, Trump will also meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel matters for the next administration.

The prediction market Polymarket has already opened a betting pool for the Treasury Secretary position, with the trading volume in this pool surpassing $2 million as of around 10:00. The current popular potential candidates are as follows (covering only the top 6 candidates, with the remaining candidates having very low likelihood):

Former Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh;

· Key Square Group Founder Scott Bessent;

· Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick;

· Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan;

· Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;

· Senator Bill Hagerty.

Currently, the market is most looking forward to an individual who is more friendly towards cryptocurrency taking control of the Treasury, thereby providing a more relaxed growth environment for the industry. Next, the Odaily Planet Daily will sequentially review the past attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the crypto industry.

Front-Runner: Kevin Warsh

First, it is worth celebrating that Kevin Warsh, the former Federal Reserve Board Governor who currently has the highest nomination probability (46%), has long been regarded as a supporter of cryptocurrency—even earlier than Trump's attitude shift.

As early as the beginning of 2021 in an interview with CNBC, Warsh expressed: "In an economic situation where the US dollar is weakening, Bitcoin as part of a portfolio makes sense."

In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the main proponents of BTC and ETH ETFs.

However, there is a certain controversy surrounding Warsh himself as he has repeatedly expressed support for Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which the crypto industry, known for its decentralized ethos, may not particularly appreciate.

The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh to become the US Treasury Secretary. Warsh has been invited to Trump's Bedminster estate for discussions, but the related talks are still ongoing.

Soros's Former Deputy: Scott Bessent

The founder of the hedge fund Key Square Group and Soros's former deputy, Scott Bessent, was once considered the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary. His own nomination odds had previously led in Polymarket, but with the 'American Protector' Elon Musk openly opposing Bessent as Treasury Secretary, his nomination odds plummeted.

Just as Musk criticized Bessent for "just keeping things as they are," Bessent is seen as a more traditional figure, with the Associated Press positioning him as a "cryptocurrency skeptic" in a previous report.

However, as Trump increasingly supports cryptocurrency, Bessent's stance has also shifted. In July, he stated, "I am excited about the president embracing cryptocurrency. I think it fits very well with the Republican Party. Cryptocurrency represents freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist."

The latest news is that Bessent may instead take on the role of Chairman of the National Economic Council, but this outcome is also yet to be confirmed.

The Man Behind Tether: Howard Lutnick

While Elon Musk has publicly opposed Bessent, he has also openly supported Howard Lutnick, co-CEO of the Trump transition team and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. As a result, Lutnick's nomination odds once led, but then fell due to rumors of Warsh taking over.

Lutnick himself is a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and can even be considered the most crypto-friendly among the main candidates.

Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages over half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally taken the stage at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference to deliver a speech; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity akin to gold and oil, and has called for clearer regulation in the cryptocurrency space.

$700 Billion Leader: Marc Rowan

The name of Apollo Global Management's CEO, Marc Rowan, was only recently added to the list of potential candidates.

While Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investments, he himself has been relatively silent on cryptocurrency. In 2022, Rowan remarked in an interview with Bloomberg that the ecosystem built around cryptocurrency is "mind-blowing"; however, this year, when asked about the role of cryptocurrency in the future of the U.S. financial system, he mentioned that this topic was "beyond his understanding."

The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives are positive about Rowan's potential nomination eligibility, but they also believe that it would be difficult for Rowan to relinquish his position as the CEO of Apollo Global Management, with assets under management reaching $700 billion.

"Trade War" Architect: Robert Lighthizer

Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his stance on cryptocurrency, but the market still needs to pay attention to the possibility of Lighthizer's appointment.

Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term, and he was considered a "staunch trade protectionist." Politico has even labeled him as the "architect" of Trump's China tariff trade war. The market generally worries that Lighthizer's appointment may affect the vitality and stability of global trade activities.

Cryptocurrency Bill Advocate: Bill Hagerty

The probability of Republican Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee becoming Treasury Secretary is not high, but as a senator, he has actively pushed for the advancement of cryptocurrency-related bills.

In October of this year, Hagerty released a discussion draft of legislation aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen mentioned in a report that this draft could serve as an outline for future legislation in 2025.

Hagerty has also voiced support for Trump's efforts to make the U.S. a cryptocurrency hub, and in July, when discussing the Bitcoin industry, he said, "We need to make sure that this happens in the United States."

The Regulatory Spring of Cryptocurrency

Overall, the next U.S. Treasury Secretary is expected to emerge soon. From the perspective of potential successors, apart from the ambiguous stance of Robert Lighthizer, most of the names that have been exposed so far hold a relatively friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency.

For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long been plagued by regulation, the next few years may be the most lenient growth environment in the industry's history. This period of regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.

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