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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market
(10:08) VanEck Ad
(10:48) Putting Money To Work When Credit Is Priced Optimistically
(19:27) The Bank Loan Market (i.e. Leveraged Loans)
(25:04) How Are Loan Borrowers Handling 500 Basis Points Of Increased Debt Costs?
(28:59) Permissionless Ad
(29:58) The Rise of Private Credit: Are We In The Golden Age?
(41:34) Is Private Credit An Untested Asset Class In A Potential Recession?
(46:53) What Is The Private Credit Money Used For?
(52:57) Why Do Active Managers Manage To Outperform The Index In Credit, When In Equities So Many Underperform?
(58:51) Loan Refinancings Are Occurring At A Record Pace
(01:03:02) Structured Credit And Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities)
(01:04:40) Specialty Retail and Emerging Markets
(01:07:02) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos
Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817
Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(12:35) VanEck Ad
(13:14) Interview Continues
(19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September?
(24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market?
(25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market
(31:41) The Housing Market
(36:41) Permissionless Ad
(37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign"
(47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates
(50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President?
(54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another
(57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed)
(01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
