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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is).
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:34) Brent's Market Views
(06:56) Brent's Dollar View
(13:44) VanEck Ad
(14:26) Interview Continues
(17:57) Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop"
(19:41) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
(20:20) People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
(26:07) Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way
(36:46) Permissionless Ad
(37:53) Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market
(43:19) Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze
(48:37) Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar
(01:02:00) Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?
(01:04:51) Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large
(01:13:03) Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?
(01:16:17) Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:26) Why George Robertson Is Bullish
(04:12) Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy?
(05:43) Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market
(09:33) Unemployment And The Labor Market
(13:22) Government Spending And The Economy
(20:16) GDP Is Booming
(21:13) VanEck Ad
(26:40) The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates
(30:47) Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy?
(35:46) Nominal GDP And Interest Rates
(52:18) How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve
(56:47) Rates Are Artificially Low
(01:18:05) How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates
(01:29:15) Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher
(01:34:09) Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations
(01:59:54) Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse
(02:03:26) Reforming Entitlement Spending
(02:08:36) The US Will Solve All Problems
(02:15:34) The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt
(02:24:07) How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy
(02:30:26) Learn More About George And Mel's Work
(02:32:15) Thoughts On Small Caps
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
