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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:26) Why George Robertson Is Bullish
(04:12) Are Fiscal Deficits Juicing the Economy?
(05:43) Impact Of Passive Fund Flows On The Market
(09:33) Unemployment And The Labor Market
(13:22) Government Spending And The Economy
(20:16) GDP Is Booming
(21:13) VanEck Ad
(26:40) The Fed Is Looking For A Reason To Cut Rates
(30:47) Are Higher Rates Stimulating The Economy?
(35:46) Nominal GDP And Interest Rates
(52:18) How The Fed Controls The Yield Curve
(56:47) Rates Are Artificially Low
(01:18:05) How The Fed Manipulates Treasury Rates
(01:29:15) Market Distortions Pushing Risk Assets Higher
(01:34:09) Stock Market Boom, Earnings & Valuations
(01:59:54) Market Bubble Will Eventually Collapse
(02:03:26) Reforming Entitlement Spending
(02:08:36) The US Will Solve All Problems
(02:15:34) The Ticking Time Bomb Of US Debt
(02:24:07) How The 2024 Election Impacts The Economy
(02:30:26) Learn More About George And Mel's Work
(02:32:15) Thoughts On Small Caps
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI.
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Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) Mike Harris Background As a Quant
(03:07) Quest Hedge Fund
(04:30) CTA Trend Following Strategy
(11:50) Trend Following Examples
(16:47) Permissionless Ad
(17:44) Interview Continues
(19:33) Quant Equity Trading Getting Crowded
(22:52) Statistical Arbitrage
(27:17) Risks to Statistical Arbitrage
(32:11) Multi-Strat Hedge Funds
(33:32) Lack of New Fund Launches
(39:04) Sharpe Ratio In Strategies
(41:34) Private Market Investing
(48:29) Volatility Strategies
(54:17) Macro And Stock Market Outlook
(01:02:26) Risks To Quest
(01:06:02) Risks To Training Models With AI
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
